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Despite Democrats' momentum in the wake of their health-care victory, passing immigration reform this year hasn't gotten any easier. Immigration remains hugely divisive, and many Democrats cringe at the thought of another protracted, vitriolic debate. Given the poisonous atmosphere on Capitol Hill, they'll also have a hard time enlisting Republican backers. The only one who's played ball so far, Sen. Lindsey Graham, vowed last week that if Democrats used reconciliation to pass health care—which, of course, they did—they'd destroy any chance of GOP collaboration (though he seemed to dial that statement back over the weekend on Univision's Al Punto).

Even so, immigration reform has shown some flickers of life recently. Graham and Democratic Sen. Chuck Schumer met with President Obama at the White House last week to discuss their blueprint for bipartisan legislation, and Obama immediately endorsed their effort. In addition, on the same day health care passed the House, more than 100,000 immigrant advocates descended on the National Mall to call for a comprehensive solution to the country's immigration woes.

They're contending with a crowded legislative calendar, however. The Obama administration has made clear that numerous other priorities—additional jobs measures, financial regulation, campaign-finance reform—should come first. Moreover, if an immigration bill has any chance of advancing in this Congress, it will need to pick up more GOP support. Frank Sharry, executive director of the pro-immigrant America's Voice, says the next four to six weeks will be critical. "If you see a bill that's released [by Schumer and Graham] with detailed legislative language and a second [Republican] sponsor, it's game on," he says. If not, which seems far more likely, don't count on any more significant movement on the issue until after the midterm elections.