Wooing Jakarta

Three times already this year, President Obama has put off scheduled visits to Indonesia, something the country has tried hard not to interpret as a slight. (He says he hopes to finally visit in November.) But last month Obama gave Indonesia a more significant gift: the lifting of America’s 12-year ban on military support to Kopassus, the Indonesian Army’s notorious special-forces unit.

Obama’s move has provoked cries from human-rights advocates who say Kopassus has yet to fully repent its Suharto-era brutality in East Timor, and that it continues to commit abuses elsewhere. But the White House appears to be motivated more by strategy than idealistic principles in this case. Lifting the Kopassus ban is a tacit acknowledgement by the U.S. that Indonesia has grown too important to be treated as anything less than a full partner—especially in light of China’s rising influence there.

Over the past decade, Indonesia’s economy has been booming—some economists say it should even be considered a BRIC—and its democracy is one of the most stable in the region. It also boasts the world’s fourth-largest population—all of which adds up to immense growth potential. These trends have not gone unnoticed by China, which has been assiduously wooing Indonesia as an economic and political partner. Last year Beijing announced a new missile deal with the Indonesian Navy, and at this year’s G20 summit, China agreed to boost investment in Indonesia’s infrastructure. Thanks to such ties, as well as a free-trade pact between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that took effect in January, China has a head start on the U.S. in currying influence with the slowly awakening power, experts say.

Still, not all of China’s maneuvers have been well received. A recent survey revealed Indonesian suspicion of the trade deal, and last month Jakarta sent a letter to the United Nations objecting to China’s sovereignty claims in the South China Sea. “China’s warm embrace has turned into kind of a threatening bear hug,” says Douglas Paal of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

America, on the other hand, shares some natural affinities with Indonesia that China lacks. For one thing, both are true democracies, an achievement that has been solidified in Indonesia under its current president, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Both have also been stung by deadly attacks orchestrated by militant Islamic groups and have cooperated on counterterrorism. Then there are the personal ties: not only did Obama spend four years of his youth in Indonesia, but Yudhoyono studied in America during his military days and calls it his “second country.” Whereas George W. Bush seemed interested in Indonesia only as a participant in the war on terror, under Obama the relationship has quickly blossomed into new territory. Early in Obama’s term, the two countries agreed to a “comprehensive partnership” calling for closer ties on such matters as education and climate change. The repeal of the Kopassus ban not only bolsters military relations, but removes the last symbolic barrier to full engagement.

Yet Indonesia is aware enough of its rising status that it isn’t about to play lackey to either partner. Instead, by forging bilateral bonds with both China and the U.S., it’s announcing itself as a global player in its own right. Still, Obama would be wise to demonstrate that America isn’t just a fair-weather friend, as it has sometimes seemed to Indonesia in the past. The first step? Making good on that long-promised trip, which keeps getting shunted back by domestic problems. Indonesia has rolled out the welcome mat three times already, says Paal: “Do it a fourth time, and people will start to give you the hairy eyeball. He needs to make that visit.”