Brotherhood Looks to Rule Cairo, But Not Now

Five years ago, the Muslim Brotherhood—Egypt’s most powerful opposition group—won 20 percent of the seats in Parliament, an impressive feat for an organization that is technically banned from politics. While far from free, the elections were Egypt’s most democratic in decades. Since then, President Hosni Mubarak has dismantled judicial oversight of elections, and analysts expect widespread vote rigging in November’s parliamentary elections. Despite opposition calls to boycott the votes, the Brotherhood is likely to participate, and to lose most of its 88 seats.

The Brotherhood may be willing to lose this vote in order to take over Cairo. An election loss leaves the Brotherhood with less influence on who succeeds Mubarak in 2012, but it is not focused on the near term, anyway, says Khaled Fahmy, a professor of Middle Eastern history at the American University of Cairo. Instead, the group seems willing to pacify the government by participating in elections in exchange for wider latitude to spread its religious ministry and its network of social services. ÒThey are building their base,Ó says Mohammed Nosseir, a senior official in Egypt’s Democratic Front Party. Since the Brotherhood is not yet strong enough to defeat Mubarak’s hand-picked successor—likely his son Gamal—the group seems to be waiting until the time is right to mount a significant challenge. ÒIn 10 or 15 years, they think they’ll own Egypt,Ó says J. Scott Carpenter, a deputy assistant secretary of state for George W. Bush. They may be right.