U.S., Europeans Don't Expect Much From China's Cooperation on Iran Sanctions

While U.S. and European officials are pleased that China has become "engaged" in United Nations Security Council discussions over new economic sanctions on Iran, their expectations are modest at best as to what those negotiations will actually produce.

The most the Security Council talks are likely to produce is "something quite limited," said a European diplomat, who asked for anonymity when discussing a sensitive issue. Any new sanctions regime likely to meet the approval of China—a major Iranian trading partner which has long resisted the imposition of new sanctions on the ayatollah's regime—would likely be "more a political gesture" and less a series of measures likely to put a real bite on the Iranian theocracy, the diplomat said. But having China—which, as a permanent Security Council member, could veto any sanctions resolution—sign onto even a token step-up in sanctions would help to "send a message" to Tehran that even its erstwhile friends were getting fed up with Iran's intransigence and truculence in responding to international concerns about its nuclear program.

A senior U.S. official, who also asked for anonymity, confirmed that China had "agreed to engage" in U.N. discussions on stepping up sanctions against Iran. "That tells me they recognize that there will be a resolution and want to participate in the process that identifies specific steps," the official added. According to news reports, the Chinese agreement to participate in discussions about new Iran sanctions came in a conference call held in the last few days between various nations, including Britain, Russia, Germany, China, and the U.S.

Another European diplomat, who also asked for anonymity but is familiar with the sanctions debate, suggested that among new international sanctions the U.N. would be likely to consider would be new measures to restrict international financial dealings of "individuals and institutions" involved in running the Iranian regime. Prominent among such potential targets, said an Obama administration foreign-policy adviser, would be new financial restrictions on personnel, units, and businesses associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime's principal security force. The U.S. has already imposed its own unilateral financial sanctions on IRGC leaders and entities, though such measures are likely to have limited effect due to the fact that the IRGC engages in little financial activity inside U.S. government jurisdiction. A U.S. national-security official expressed doubt that even stepped-up international sanctions would "cripple" the IRGC.

The Obama foreign-policy adviser said that the government of France has been pressing for much harsher sanctions on Iran. But the adviser said that there is likely to be little support from Security Council members like China for biting sanctions favored by some of the Europeans, such as a tightened arms embargo on Iran. Also likely to be discussed—but not necessarily acceptable to China—are possible stepped-up sanctions on Iran's energy industry, such as tighter controls on the sale of Western energy exploration and production technology to Iran, according to both European and U.S. diplomats and officials. However, few, if any, current European and U.S. officials believe that the U.N. in general, and China in particular, would be willing to go along with some of the more drastic sanctions proposed by some of Iran's harshest U.S. critics, such as an attempt to cut off Iran's supplies of refined petroleum products.