Handicapping the Race for Literature's Nobel Prize

Thursday at 11 a.m. GMT (that’s 7 a.m. ET), the Nobel Academy will award its 2009 prize for literature. Like every other year, the announcement will be met with a mix of jubilation, consternation, and plain-old head scratching, as some of us will feel a writer has finally been recognized, others will feel their favorite has been overlooked, and many more could end up wondering who the author is to begin with (quick, what’s the best book you’ve read by last year’s winner, J.M.G. Le Clézio?) But for those of us not in contention for the Nobel, the fun isn’t in the winning, it’s in the speculating.

The blogosphere’s literati have been abuzz about the betting odds published by British bookmakers Ladbrokes. The odds are constantly in flux (check out one site's calculation of them here), but for the most part Israeli novelist Amos Oz has held at the top of the list with a 4 to 1 shot, followed by Algerian author Assia Djebar (5 to 1) and American writer Joyce Carol Oates (recently up to 5 to 1 from 7 to 1). How well do these odds reflect the Nobel committee’s thinking? Well, perennial favorites like the Syrian poet Adonis rightly have pretty good odds. But then again, Bob Dylan’s chances of winning (25 to 1) are apparently far better than those of Umberto Eco (66 to 1), the Italian writer of intellect-bending literary blockbusters like Foucault’s Pendulum. The Nobel decision can be a complete surprise, too. Who really expected Elfriede Jelinek to win in 2006? In other words, the odds are fun to argue over, but we're not sure if we'd put money on them.

Aside from an author’s actual writing, what other factors might be in play? Last year, the permanent secretary of the Nobel jury, Horace Engdahl, caused an uproar when he said American writers were too parochial, too isolated, and didn’t participate “in the big dialogue of literature.” Ironically, Engdahl’s comments could mean a bump for American candidates. The Nobel Academy has seemed eager to distance itself from Engdahl’s opinion, and Peter Englund, who has since replaced Engdahl as permanent secretary, said recently that the awards have been too “Eurocentric.” There has also been talk that a poet is overdue—the last to win was Wislawa Szymborska in 1996—which bodes well for Adonis and the South Korean poet Ko Un. Language also matters. No Spanish-language writer has won since Octavio Paz in 1990, which could make Mario Vargas Llosa an attractive choice.

A sampling of top contenders:

On a sadder note, John Updike, who was perpetually on the short list to win, died earlier this year. He joins the illustrious group of writers who never received the prize but certainly should have, including James Joyce, Marcel Proust, and Vladimir Nabokov.