Super Tuesday, State by State: The Democrats

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When the votes are tallied tomorrow night--or in the wee hours Wednesday morning, more likely--22 states will award a total of 1,688 delegates to the Democratic candidates for president. In a typical election year, that'd be enough to put the top White House hopeful within spitting distance of 2,025--the number needed to clinch the nomination. But this year is anything but typical.

After leading Barack Obama since the start of the race by 20 points nationally, Hillary Clinton has seen her edge evaporate in the past two weeks; the gap between the Democratic rivals is now only 4.5 percent on average, and four of the last five polls show a statistical draw. What's more, Obama's national momentum has trickled down, helping him chip away at Clinton's once-commanding margins in most key states. "Of the 10 states with reliable and recent poll data, Clinton leads in eight, although by razor-thin margins in California, Alabama, Missouri, Connecticut and New Jersey," reads today's New York Post. "Only in New York, Massachusetts and Tennessee does her lead seem secure."

In a tight race like Clinton vs. Obama, 32 of the state's 53 districts--i.e., the ones with an even number of delegates--are likely to result in a draw. And it's almost impossible to win by more than one delegate in any of the 21 other districts (again, unless it's a landslide--which is highly unlikely this year). So the incentive to microtarget is small--and the chance that any one candidate emerges with an overwhelming lead is even smaller.

Still, the candidate who wins the statewide vote gets the largest share of an additional 35 percent of the delegates--and Wednesday's friendliest headlines. Expect a lot of finger-crossing in New York and Chicago as the returns trickle in.

New Jersey
(Clinton, 47.1; Obama, 40.1)

The Garden State wasn't supposed to be this close. Next-door to New York, Clinton's home state, it's a place where memories of Sept. 11--and Clinton's efforts on behalf of victims and rescue workers--are still strong. But since early December, the former First Lady's lead has shrunk from a high of  34 percent to its current average of seven. Clinton faces a similar home-court challenge in Connecticut, where the latest polls show a sudden draw--or even an Obama lead.

Clinton is still the Garden State favorite. But there's a growing chance that Obama will capitalize on his cresting support among African-Americans (15 percent of the population) and younger, wealthier New Jerseyites (Stumper's state is the richest in the nation) to erase her inherent advantage before Tuesday. If so, it'd be a devastating symbolic win--and would likely signal that Feb. 5 will be an overwhelming day for Obama. If not, he's still poised to pick off more of the state's 107 delegates than once expected. Flaunting his impressive roster of in-state supporters, including Gov. Jon Corzine, former Sen. Bill Bradley, Newark Mayor Cory Booker and state senate president Richard Codey, Obama returned to the Garden State today for a final-push appearance; Clinton last visited on Jan. 23.