Final Debate Thoughts? Advantage: Obama

My take on tonight's debate in Austin? Advantage, Obama.

That's not because Clinton had a bad night. Far from it. She was substantive and strong, and had the best moment of the evening with her forthright, compassionate response (above) to the "tested" question in the bottom of the ninth. (Although she also had the worst. "Change you can Xerox"? Painful.) As I wrote earlier, Obama played it safe, reiterating the "mistakes of my youth" line before reciting his "inspiring" biography yet again. It was textbook politics, and I expected Clinton to do something similar--even though everyone in the audience was well aware that her low point was probably Monica Lewinsky. But to my surprise, she actually alluded to the scandal. "As everybody knows, I've been through some crises in my life," she said. It resonated immediately. Then, smartly, Clinton pivoted to stories of the suffering of Iraq war veterans, and admitted that her trials were nothing compared to their pain. “You know, no matter what happens in this contest—and I am honored to be here with Barack Obama—whatever happens, we’re going to be fine.” she said, reaching over to touch her rival's hand--and echoing John Edwards and her husband Bill. "You know, we have strong support from our families and our friends. I just hope that we’ll be able to say the same thing about the American people, and that’s what this election should be about.” If the undecided voters of Texas and Ohio remember any part of Clinton's performance tomorrow, I suspect that this dramatic "Hallmark moment" will be it--especially after the cable channels put it on repeat. I even noticed a little mist in her eyes.

Unfortunately for Clinton, there's a larger trend at work--and she didn't (and probably couldn't) do much to reverse it. Obama has long trailed in Texas and Ohio--but he trailed everywhere else, too, and has ended up winning more often than not. In Texas, the latest polls show the race tied; in Ohio, Clinton's lead is down from 15 to 20 points last week to seven or so today. Obama has cut into Clinton's early advantages among Latinos, white voters, women and downscale Dems. I don't think that Clinton needed to attack tonight; snipping and sniping probably would've done her more damage than good. But for much of the debate--especially the middle third--she allowed Obama to preempt her best contrasts and even make her look a little petty. For me, the turning point came about halfway through. "Hillary's been saying 'Let's get real,'" said Obama, tipping his hat to the voters who support him and the Texas editorial boards that have endorsed him. "The implication has been that the people who have been voting for me or involved in my campaign are somehow delusional." The audience laughed. "The thinking is that somehow they're being duped ... and that eventually they're going to see the reality of things," he continued. "[But] I think they perceive the reality of what's going on in Washington very clearly. What they see is that if we don't bring the country together, stop the endless bickering, actually focus on solutions and reduce the special interests that have dominated Washington, then we will not get anything done." It was at once a deft dismissal of Clinton's major critique and a pretty convincing introduction to the voters of Texas and Ohio--who, believe it or not, are still getting to know him.

We'll see over the next 10 days or so whether Obama can come from behind in the Lone Star and Buckeye States as he did in, say, Wisconsin. There's certainly no guarantee that he will. But the problem for Clinton is that such a surge is no less likely now than it was before tonight's debate. Sometimes, as they say, reality bites.

Read my (charmingly typo-riddled) liveblog here.