The Filter: March 25, 2008

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

ONE BRUISING SCENARIO FOR CLINTON
(Adam Nagourney, New York Times)
There remains at least one scenario where Mrs. Clinton could win. It is an increasingly unlikely one and one that could traumatize the Democratic Party. Still, it gives succor to her supporters, and presumably Mrs. Clinton herself, and is something to keep in mind watching the two of them head toward the endgame of their contest. First of all, Mrs. Clinton not only has to win Pennsylvania on April 22, she has to swamp Mr. Obama there. And she has to go on and post a convincing win against Mr. Obama in Indiana, a state where the two appear evenly matched. Results like those would serve to underscore concerns among some Democrats that arose after Mrs. Clinton had beaten Mr. Obama in Ohio, suggesting he was having trouble getting blue-collar white voters into his column. It is one constituency that aides to Mr. McCain see very much in play this fall. Along the same lines, Mrs. Clinton would get some wind if she trounces Mr. Obama in the June 3 contest in Puerto Rico. Mr. Obama has had trouble in competing for Latino voters... But these two factors alone would would not be enough. What Mrs. Clinton is going to need is for Mr. Obama to suffer a collapse in polls in hypothetical match-ups with Mr. McCain at the time superdelegates are being pressed to make up their minds.

THE LONG DEFEAT
(David Brooks, New York Times)
Last week, an important Clinton adviser told Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen (also of Politico) that Clinton had no more than a 10 percent chance of getting the nomination. Now, she’s probably down to a 5 percent chance... For the sake of that 5 percent, this will be the sourest spring. About a fifth of Clinton and Obama supporters now say they wouldn’t vote for the other candidate in the general election. Meanwhile, on the other side, voters get an unobstructed view of the Republican nominee. John McCain’s approval ratings have soared 11 points. He is now viewed positively by 67 percent of Americans. A month ago, McCain was losing to Obama among independents by double digits in a general election matchup. Now McCain has a lead among this group. For three more months, Clinton is likely to hurt Obama even more against McCain, without hurting him against herself. And all this is happening so she can preserve that 5 percent chance. When you step back and think about it, she is amazing. She possesses the audacity of hopelessness.

THE OBAMA DOCTRINE
(Spencer Ackerman, American Prospect)
To understand what Obama is proposing, it's important to ask: What, exactly, is the mind-set that led to the war? What will it mean to end it? And what will take its place? To answer these questions, I spoke at length with Obama's foreign-policy brain trust, the advisers who will craft and implement a new global strategy if he wins the nomination and the general election. They envision a doctrine that first ends the politics of fear and then moves beyond a hollow, sloganeering "democracy promotion" agenda in favor of "dignity promotion," to fix the conditions of misery that breed anti-Americanism and prevent liberty, justice, and prosperity from taking root. An inextricable part of that doctrine is a relentless and thorough destruction of al-Qaeda. Is this hawkish? Is this dovish? It's both and neither -- an overhaul not just of our foreign policy but of how we think about foreign policy. And it might just be the future of American global leadership.

OBAMA'S TEST: CAN A LIBERAL BE A UNIFIER?
(Robin Toner, New York Times) 
Can such a majority be built and led by Mr. Obama, whose voting record was, by one ranking, the most liberal in the Senate last year? Also, and more immediately, if Mr. Obama wins the Democratic nomination, how will his promise of a new and less polarized type of politics fare against the Republican attacks that since the 1980s have portrayed Democrats as far out of step with the country’s values? To many political strategists, the furor over the racial views of Mr. Obama’s former pastor is only the first of many such tests the senator will face if he is the nominee.

INDIANA SHAPES UP AS STATE OF PARITY FOR DEMOCRATS
(Anne E. Kornblut, Washington Post)
Something unusual appears to be developing in the Democratic presidential race in this state: a fair fight. Wedged between Illinois, which is Sen. Barack Obama's home state, and Ohio, which Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton dominated on March 4, Indiana may be the one state remaining on the primary calendar where both candidates begin with a roughly equal chance of coming out ahead. That fact alone makes it stand out from states such as Pennsylvania, where the playing field for the April 22 contest offers big advantages to Clinton (N.Y.), or the Oregon race a month later, which clearly tilts toward Obama.

WORRIED DEMS WISH FOR 'DREAM TEAM'
(Susan Page, USA Today)
History demonstrates that a team of rivals often prevails. In 1960, Democrat John F. Kennedy selected the older, more experienced Texas Sen. Lyndon Johnson, who had hoped to claim the presidential nomination himself. Johnson, then the Senate majority leader, accepted the No. 2 spot, but relations between him and the Kennedy camp were never easy. Still, he delivered what JFK wanted, bolstering his strength among Southern conservatives generally and carrying Texas in particular. In 1976, after a Republican nomination battle that went all the way to the national convention in Kansas City, Mo., President Ford and challenger Ronald Reagan didn't join forces. Ford didn't ask, Reagan told associates he wasn't interested — and Ford narrowly lost the election to Jimmy Carter. Four years later, Reagan won the nomination and, after a flirtation with Ford, chose the elder Bush as his running mate.

MORE: The Case for an Obama-Clinton Ticket (Steve Kornacki, New York Observer)
It’s not that he’d necessarily want her there—and it’s an open question whether she’d even want to be there herself. But both of them may find the pressure from their party is just too much.

DEMS TO HAMMER MCCAIN FOR '100 YEARS'
(David Paul Kuhn, Politico)
Though it’s not exactly an accurate representation of McCain’s views, Democratic strategists view the “100 years” remark as the lynchpin of an effort to turn McCain's national security credentials against him by framing the Vietnam War hero as a warmonger who envisions an American presence in Iraq without end.  Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama began citing McCain’s remark in Democratic debates not long after he made it and their campaigns have stepped up the focus in recent weeks.

(Stumper told you so.)

2004 COULD SEE TURNOUT TSUNAMI
(David Mark, Politico)
After a primary season marked by record-shattering voter turnout, election officials across the country are bracing for what might be an Election Day like no other.  Many state and local election officials expect turnout in the Nov. 4 presidential election to exceed that of 2004, when voter turnout hit 61 percent — which was the highest level since 1968, according to the Center for the Study of the American Electorate.  “November could see the highest turnout of my lifetime,” said Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer, 63. “Turnout could be up to as much as 80 percent.” Arizona, of course, is home to the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain. But election administrators across the country are warning of the possibility of a turnout tsunami, a prospect that both thrills and alarms them. 

CLINTON UNVEILS PLAN TO EASE THE HOUSING CRISIS
(Anne E. Kornblut and Jon Cohen, Washington Post)
On Monday, Clinton laid out a plan in Philadelphia aimed at slowing mounting foreclosures, renewing her call for greater lender transparency and for $30 billion in assistance for individual homeowners and communities to help most Americans through the credit crunch. Clinton used a speech at the University of Pennsylvania to argue that the federal government should apply the same kind of resources to assist individuals as it did in bailing out investment giant Bear Stearns. Aides to Obama responded by saying Clinton was simply echoing proposals offered by their candidate and by accusing her of hypocrisy on the issue because she had accepted contributions from the mortgage lending industry. Obama has offered a $10 billion relief package.