The Filter: April 18, 2008

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

HOW OBAMA FELL TO EARTH
(David Brooks, New York Times)
It was inevitable that the period of “Yes We Can!” deification would come to an end. It was not inevitable that Obama would now look so vulnerable. He’ll win the nomination, but in a matchup against John McCain, he is behind in Florida, Missouri and Ohio, and merely tied in must-win states like Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. A generic Democrat now beats a generic Republican by 13 points, but Obama is trailing his own party. One in five Democrats say they would vote for McCain over Obama... A few months ago, Obama was riding his talents. Clinton has ground him down, and we are now facing an interesting phenomenon. Republicans have long assumed they would lose because of the economy and the sad state of their party. Now, Democrats are deeply worried their nominee will lose in November. Welcome to 2008. Everybody’s miserable.

SUPERDELEGATES UNSWAYED BY CLINTON'S ATTACKS
(Patrick Healy, New York Times)
Throughout their contentious debate on Wednesday, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton tried again and again to put Senator Barack Obama on the defensive in a pointed attempt, her advisers say, to raise doubts about his electability among a small but powerful audience: the uncommitted superdelegates who will most likely determine the nomination. Yet despite giving it her best shot in what might have been their final debate, interviews on Thursday with a cross-section of these superdelegates — members of Congress, elected officials and party leaders — showed that none had been persuaded much by her attacks on Mr. Obama’s strength as a potential Democratic nominee, his recent gaffes and his relationships with his former pastor and with a onetime member of the Weather Underground. 

CLINTON'S GOAL: WIN BIG IN PENNSYLVANIA, SOW DOUBTS OVER OBAMA
(Amy Chozick, Wall Street Journal)
With Sen. Hillary Clinton widely expected to win Pennsylvania's Democratic primary on Tuesday, most of the focus is on the margin. Anything less than a double-digit victory could solidify the perception that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the inevitable Democratic nominee, sparking a flow of superdelegates to his side... Most important, a strong Clinton victory would send a message to the superdelegates -- whose support she needs to win the nomination -- or might at least persuade them to stay neutral longer to see if a similar pattern plays out through May.

PA. PRIMARY WON'T SWAY SUPERDELEGATES
(Fredreka Schouten, USA Today)
Dozens of uncommitted superdelegates with sway over the Democratic presidential nomination say Pennsylvania's primary on Tuesday won't be the decisive factor in their choice between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Instead, they told USA TODAY and Gannett News Service, they will choose by July 1, a deadline suggested by Democratic National Chairman Howard Dean. Superdelegates are party leaders and elected officials with an automatic vote at the national convention.

MCCAIN READIES UNORTHODOX CAMPAIGN
(Jonathan Martin, Politico)
For reasons of financial necessity, personal preference and plain politics, John McCain is gearing up to run one of the least traditional presidential campaigns in recent history. The problem is that even prominent strategists within McCain’s own party wonder if his unorthodox strategy will work. Facing the prospect of competing against a Democrat who is on track to shatter every fundraising record — and confronted by his own inability to rake in large bundles of cash — McCain and his key advisers have largely been forced into devising a three-pronged strategy that they hope can turn their general election weaknesses into strengths. McCain will lean heavily on the well-funded Republican National Committee. He will merge key functions of his campaign hierarchy with the RNC while also relying on an unconventional structure of 10 regional campaign mangers. And finally — and perhaps most importantly — McCain will rely on free media to an unprecedented degree to get out his message in a fashion that aims to not only minimize his financial disadvantage but also drive a triangulated contrast among himself, the Democratic nominee and President Bush. 

MORE: McCain Campaign's Next Stop: 'Forgotten Parts of America' (David Jackson, USA Today)
John McCain plans to spend next week reaching out to African-Americans, displaced factory workers and people living in poverty — voters not usually associated with the Republican Party. Starting Monday, the presumptive GOP nominee for president will stop in Alabama's "Black Belt," then move on to the struggling steel town of Youngstown, Ohio, and the Appalachian region of Kentucky. The Arizona senator is also trying to make it to New Orleans, which is still recovering from 2005's Hurricane Katrina... McCain "is sending the signal that he's a different kind of Republican," which he must do to attract independent voters unaligned with either party, Republican pollster Whit Ayres said.

CLINGING TO A STEREOTYPE
(Paul Krugman, New York Times)
Will Barack Obama’s now famous “bitter” quote turn out to have been a big deal politically? Frankly, I have no idea. But here’s a different question: was Mr. Obama right? Mr. Obama’s comments combined assertions about economics, sociology and voting behavior. In each case, his assertion was mostly if not entirely wrong.

OBAMA LOOKS TO TURN DEBATE INTO A VICTORY
(Shailagh Murray and Perry Bacon, Jr., Washington Post)
A day after undergoing the toughest grilling of the campaign, Sen. Barack Obama attempted to get back on the offensive Thursday, arguing that his candidacy offers a clear departure from the attack politics and trivial issues that he said have dominated presidential campaigns and led to gridlock in Washington... Just as they did last weekend, when Obama was engulfed in controversy over his remarks about small-town bitterness, he and his advisers sought to turn potential trouble into an advantage. In Thursday's narrative, Obama saw Clinton's performance as a metaphor for the kind of politics he wants to move beyond. He called Washington a town of "gotcha games," "anything goes" and "slash-and-burn politics." Clinton, he said, "looked in her element" on the stage at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia as he grappled with uncomfortable questions.

THE DEAN 25 COULD DECIDE CLINTON'S FATE
(Avi Zenilman, Politico)
If, as Hillary Clinton has suggested, her campaign takes the fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations all the way to the Democratic National Convention this summer, the fate of her challenge is all but certain to hinge on 25 individuals appointed to the Credentials Committee by party Chairman Howard Dean. Since it appears virtually impossible for Clinton to win enough of the 161 members selected by the states to vote out a “majority report” supporting her position—and it is unlikely that Barack Obama will win enough of them either—the Dean 25 are in a position to hold the balance of power on a procedural matter that could play a pivotal role in deciding the Democratic presidential nomination. Though these 25 appointees are often assumed to be handpicked Dean loyalists who will take their cues from him on the issue of seating Florida and Michigan, a Politico analysis has found that is far from certain. Many of the 25 are already publicly supporting either Clinton or Obama—and some are barely acquainted with Dean.