Clinton's Cash Woes Continue

In an April 3 item titled "Could Money Woes Force Clinton from the Race?", we wrote that "if Clinton spent [in March] at anything like February's rate--$1 million a day--she'd be living hand-to-mouth."

Turns out that's pretty much true.

At the end of each month, presidential campaigns typically disclose an overall fundraising haul. But they're not actually required to release the full financial nitty-gritty until the 20th of the following month--meaning that crucial information, like how much money is actually available for the primary battle versus how much is off-limits until the general election, is often hidden from view until long after reporters have moved on to other, shinier objects.

But yesterday, of course, was April 20--and it's clear from Clinton's FEC filings that she's barely breaking even. Even though the New York senator raised more than $20 million in March, and reports having more than $30 million in cash on hand, she's only allowed to use $8 million of that war chest against Barack Obama in the Democratic primary. (Our prediction, for the record, was $7 million.) With more than $10 million in debt, Clinton is technically in the red, and she's spending money as fast as it comes in ($22 million disbursed in March versus $20 million raised). Meanwhile, Obama has $51 million in his vault--with a full $45 million available for the primary.

Going forward, this matters. As we wrote earlier this month: "it's not that money determines electoral outcomes. Obama massively outspent Clinton in Texas and Ohio and still lost the primaries; Clinton will likely win Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico despite the dinero differential. But pecuniary perceptions are important. "If Clinton is perceived to be in financial peril, she becomes a much less attractive investment for donors deciding where to give their money," writes Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post. "By the same token, if Obama looks like the nominee, he is sure to vacuum up the campaign cash of fence sitters looking for a winner." As the clock ticks down, Clinton will have fewer chances to gain delegates and votes, and Obama will appear more and more inevitable. Wins in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6--hardly a sure thing, but possible--would only accelerate that process. All of which is to say that if Obama "looks like the nominee" at some point before the convention, Clinton's financial intake may flatline. In that case, she probably won't have the rainy-day money necessary to keep fighting."