The
next state on the Democratic primary schedule is, of course, West
Virginia, which has Tuesday all to its amoeba-shaped self. Why is it,
then, that Barack Obama has yet to book a single stop in, say,
Shepherdstown, Charleston, Philippi, Sutton, Fayetteville, Fairlea or
Bluefield--all of which have already hosted either Bill or Hillary
Clinton?
Because he has no chance of winning--and no one seems to care.
Appearing on ABC's Nightline back in November 2007, Obama slipped into Bob Dole mode for this
slightly overconfident assessment
of his electoral chances: "Every place is Barack Obama country once
Barack Obama's been there." The Mountain State seems unlikely to
confirm his analysis--to put it mildly. Rasmussen released this year's
first West Virginia poll in mid-March; it gave Clinton a 29-point advantage. The
next survey,
taken in early April, showed her ahead by a mere 15 points. But by the
time May rolled around, Clinton's numbers had more than rebounded. In
the latest polls, she now leads Obama by a whopping
40 to
43
points; he doesn't even break 24 percent. If those margins hold on
Tuesday, the heavily white, heavily working-class West Virginia stands
to be her strongest showing to date. Obama knows that no amount of
campaigning could overcome Clinton's demographic advantages in
Appalachia. Faced with a place that stands no chance of becoming
"Barack Obama country," then, Barack Obama is choosing not to go there.
Better to keep expectations low (much like Clinton did when she skipped Nebraska, Washington and Louisiana in February). "She is going to do very well in West
Virginia," Obama said today in Beaverton, Ore., 2,600 miles from the Mountain State. "She will
win... in all likelihood by [a] significant margin."
(For
the record, Obama is still scrounging for votes--he's just not doing it
in person. Since April 25, the Obama campaign has been airing an ad about
soaring gas prices ("
Nothing's Changed")
on West Virginia TV. And on Wednesday, state field director Rachel Sigman urged
supporters, via email, to "join us in West Virginia--just as so many of
you did for North Carolina and Indiana--to go door-to-door and build
our movement here." Chicago's goal, of course, is to get as many
delegates as possible on Tuesday--without making it obvious that
they're actually, you know, exerting any effort. *Obama has visited only once before, on March 20,* and plans to stop by
Monday to visit a coal mine or something, but only because he's heading from Oregon to Washington, D.C. and it's, like, on the way.)
That said, as much as any other post-Tuesday data point--Tim Russert
declaring
that "we now know who the Democratic nominee's going to be, and no
one's going to dispute it," for example--Obama's West Virginia cold
shoulder signals that his epic clash with Clinton is finally coming to
an end. If the Mountain State had scheduled its primary for, say, April
29--i.e., the week after Pennsylvania--a 35-point loss in blue-collar
country would've done him serious damage by amplifying the storyline
du jour:
namely, that Obama's Bubba Gap represented a potentially fatal flaw.
But at this point, everyone knows that West Virginia's measly 28
delegates (or the 189 up for grabs afterwards) can't change the
calculus of the race, meaning that they can't change the
new narrative--
Obama has the nomination sewn up--either. That's why the Illinois senator can get away with brushing off the entire
contest. For her part, Clinton clearly wants West Virginia to count. "I
think West Virginia is a test," she
said
Thursday in Charleston, noting that the state is rich in the "Catholic
voters and Hispanic voters and blue-collar workers and seniors" that
Dems will need to win in November. "It's a test for me, it's a test for
Sen. Obama."
Unfortunately for Clinton, it's a test that Obama can afford to fail--and still finish first in his class.
*Updated 8:03 p.m.; the line about the coal mine is a joke, FYI.
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