The McCain Veepwatch, Vol. 3: Charlie Crist

Name: Charlie Crist
Age: 51
Resume: Florida Governor, former Florida Attorney General

Source of Speculation: Call it Survivor: Sedona Edition. On Memorial Day weekend, McCain invited three politicians to join him at his Arizona ranch: former Mass. Gov. (and Republican presidential rival) Mitt Romney, current Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and--you guessed it--Crist. McCain strategist Charlie Black insisted the gathering would be "purely social" and had "nothing whatsoever to do with the vice presidential selection process," but the idea that McCain coincidentally chose to spend the holiday weekend with three rumored veep contenders--none of whom he's particularly friendly--was sort of hard to swallow. And even though Crist later told MSNBC that "the topic never came up," McCain soon showed his cards. "Charlie Crist is qualified [to be vice president]," he said in an interview with Tampa's Bay News 9 earlier this month. "He's had other offices. As we know, he was attorney general as well. This is a big and diverse state."

Backstory: The Crist-McCain speculation may have grown louder in the wake of the wet 'n' wild Sedona weekend, but it started several months earlier. At McCain's request, Crist reportedly agreed not to endorse a candidate for the Republican presidential nomination until after New Hampshire. When McCain won, he immediately called Crist asking for his support, and tried again the Friday before the Jan 26. Florida primary, reminding him, according to Sunshine State political reporter S.V. Date, that he would be in Crist's hometown the following night. "You could do it then," he said. Crist didn't commit. But privately, the tracking polls showing Romney overtaking McCain (who endorsed Crist in 2006) had him worried. "How would I have felt Wednesday morning if I hadn't done anything and he lost?" Crist told Date last in February. "I felt like maybe he needed a lift." And that's exactly what Crist provided. The next day, the governor surprised McCain with a last-minute endorsement, then set his well-oiled political machine in motion. By Tuesday evening, McCain's 11-point deficit (as of Saturday) in in the Crist's hometown of Tampa Bay had become a 7-point victory--"a swing of more than 40,000 votes that accounted for a good chunk of the statewide swing of at least 10 points, or 190,000 votes, over the same time period," according to Date. McCain had essentially clinched the nomination--and the buzz began about Crist  getting something in return. They soon appeared together in Arizona, California and New Jersey.

Odds: Low. Crist has plenty of pluses. Born in Altoona, Penn. to Greek parents, he could help sway the state's white, ethnic Democrats and boost the Arizona senator in a place his team desperately wants to flip. He's likable, telegenic and young enough (at 52) to smooth out McCain's rough edges and give the ticket a much-needed spark of youthful vigor. He appeals to moderates, a group that McCain must win over in order to defeat Obama; some have likened him, in fact, to California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, "without the Austria accent." As attorney general--nickname: "Chain Gang Charlie"--Crist earned a reputation as being tough on crime, and his tenure as governor provides a potential ticket with some much-needed executive experience. Finally, and most importantly, he's already proven that he can help deliver Florida, long one of the key battleground states.

The only problem? Crist hurts McCain more than he helps him. For starters, Florida already looks like a lock for McCain; he leads by 8.3 percent in the latest polls, and the state's senior citizens, Cuban-Americans, military families and Southern transplants provide the senator with a clear demographic edge over Obama--not to mention that Crist will campaign for McCain in the Sunshine State whether or not he's on the ticket. Secondly, Crist may be a social conservative on paper, but the Christian right is wary of him--to put it mildly. He pulled his support for the gay marriage amendment. He created a socialized insurance market in Florida. He speaks out against global warming. As attorney general, he refused to intervene in the Terry Schiavo debacle. And, worst of all, he was once pro-choice and, although nominally pro-life today, displays little enthusiasm for abortion issues. "It would be seen as a slap in the face to the Evangelical base," writes the Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody. Conservative activist Jim Backlin has gone one step further. ""If the goal of the campaign is to shore up the base of the party, which is still critically needed, that pick would do exactly the opposite," he has said. "Many social conservatives, and conservatives in general, would sit on their hands this election." Needless to say, McCain can ill-afford to further alienate the right wing of the Republican party. Finally, Crist is unmarried, having divorced in 1980 after a year of marriage, and his swinging singledom has been the subject of much speculation, including (somewhat conflicting) rumors of homosexuality and an out-of-wedlock child. Crist denies the charges--both completely unproven--but, as a conservative commentator Michael Medved notes, "such reports... would receive lavish and detailed press coverage the moment Crist appeared on a ticket with a very real chance that stories about his dating life over the last 28 years would drown out serious discussion of his accomplishments."

After his trip to Sedona, Crist told reporters that he "ate too much, had some great chicken, great barbecue.'' He should treasure the memory--because it doesn't look like McCain will be serving him desert anytime soon.