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From Newsweek

A Gore Endorsement? Yawn. A Gore Endorsement in Michigan? Interesting...

 

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Oh, wait. Sorry about that. It seems that I passed out on the upper left-hand corner of my keyboard. Must've been the news that Al Gore endorsed Barack Obama last night that put me to sleep.

In a move that surprised exactly no one, the former Democratic nominee for president traveled yesterday to Detroit's Joe Louis Arena to throw his support to... the current Democratic nominee for president. "This moment and this election are too important to let pass without taking action," he said. Of course, the Oscar- and Nobel-winning veep could've delivered his benediction earlier--like, say, February, when it may have helped bring the interminable Democratic primary battle between Obama and Gore's ex-boss's wife, Hillary Clinton, to an earlier conclusion. After all, Gore and Obama have talked frequently since January 2007, including in a meeting last fall at Gore’s home in Nashville--while Hillary and Gore aren't what you would call close. That he didn't--and that he waited a full ten days after his choice had narrowed to a) a Democrat or b) a Republican--is evidence either of his judiciousness (I'll let the voters decide) or his caution (Why burn a bridge?). In other words, "yawn."

That said, there's at least one thing about the Gore endorsement worth noting: the location. (No, he won't accept a slot as Obama's veep--no matter what James Carville says.) One of two states where the Democratic primary process was derailed by disagreements between the national party and its local satellites--and where, consequently, the presidential candidates did not campaign--Michigan is now enjoying Obama's nearly undivided attention. What's interesting here is that Florida (site of the other botched primary) is not. According to the Washington Post's 2008 Campaign Tracker, the Illinois senator has made 10 campaign stops on two separate swings through the Great Lakes State since mid-May--far more than any other non-primary state--versus only six in Florida (on a single trip). What's more, the Michigan events included Obama's two biggest endorsements to date: John Edwards on May 14 in Grand Rapids, and now Gore (whose backing, as Ben Smith notes, "might have had more symbolic resonance [in] Florida.")

Obama is obsessed with Michigan because, unlike Florida, it's a must-win state--and winning there is hardly a sure thing at this point. In Tropicana country, Obama currently trails McCain by an average of 8.3 points. That's a difficult hill to climb, which is why Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has designed his boss's electoral strategy around losing Florida (like John Kerry) in November. The problem is, Obama can't afford to drop Michigan's 17 electoral votes (which Kerry won) as well. Recent Michigan polls are rare, but the three taken since May 19 show McCain with an average lead of 1.6 percent. Why so close? Democratic divisions. In Rasmussen's national polling, Obama and McCain earn identical levels of support from members of their own parties: 81 percent of Dems back Obama and 83 percent of Republicans back McCain. But the latest Rasmussen poll in Michigan shows that while McCain's local GOP support matches his national number--83 percent--Obama's support among state Democrats falls seven points to 74 percent. Those defectors--perhaps former Clintonites dissatisfied with how Michigan's controversial delegate clash was resolved--are enough to keep McCain in contention.

With that in mind, expect Obama to make Michigan a major focus of his fall travel plans. And expect the candidate--and even the Goracle itself--to continue pushing the party-unity argument unveiled by the former veep last night. “Looking back over the last eight years, I can tell you that we have already learned one important fact,” he said. “Take it from me, elections matter."

Translation: Now's your chance to right the wrongs of 2000. Don't blow it. We'll see in November whether Gore's message is more compelling than his timing.
 

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