The Obama Veepwatch, Vol. 8: Tim Kaine

In which Stumper examines the Democratic nominee's possible--and not-so-possible--vice-presidential picks. (Previous McCain installments: Bobby Jindal; Mitt Romney; Charlie Crist; Tim Pawlenty; Rob Portman.)

Name: Tim Kaine

Age: 50

Education: University of Missouri--Columbia (undergrad), Harvard University (law)

Resume: Richmond city councilman, Richmond mayor, Virginia lieutenant governor, Virginia governor

Source of speculation: How about every news outlet on planet Earth. In the past 24 hours, the entire D.C. press corps seems to have come down with a serious case of Kainemania. First, the Politico's Ben Smith and Amie Parnes reported that "Kaine has emerged as one of the campaign’s potential finalists" who "ranks very, very, very high on the short list," according to a source that " has spoken recently to senior Obama aides about Kaine." (Two "verys" was apparently too tepid.) Then the Washington Post revealed that " Kaine has told close associates that he has had 'very serious' conversations with Sen. Barack Obama about joining the Democratic presidential ticket and has provided documents to the campaign as it combs through his background, according to several sources close to Kaine." Finally, Kaine himself visited Washington radio station WTOP yesterday afternoon-- just as Obama was meeting for more than three hours with his search team --to issue the standard "I'm flattered" disclaimer and (more importantly) keep the rumor mill spinning . "My mom loves it," he said of the veep buzz."But that is for the campaign to decide." One thing Kaine didn't disclaim: whether he would serve out his first gubernatorial term (it ends in 2010).

Oh, and word is he's pulled out of a Baltimore fundraiser scheduled for tomorrow night. Which is when Obama plans to stage a barbecue in Union, Mo. Which is 50 miles from Kaine's hometown. We're just saying.

Backstory: Veepwatch enthusiasts--Stumper included--have long considered Kaine one of the leading contenders to serve alongside Obama. On Feb. 17,  2007--a mere seven days after Obama tossed his hat in the presidential ring--Kaine became the first governor outside of Illinois to endorse the lanky Land of Lincolner. Obama's first stop after clinching the Democratic nomination on June 3 was in Virginia--with Kaine at his side. What's more, the parallels between the two pols' biographies are pretty striking. Obama's mother hailed from El Dorado, Ks. (pop. 12,718); so does Kaine's. Both Obama and Kaine--and their wives Michelle and Anne--attended Harvard Law. Both worked as civil-rights attorneys before entering politics. And both went by the name Barry in high school. (Kidding about that last one.) Such similarities obviously don't seal the deal, or even play a part. But as Ben Smith notes, no coincidence is too small to escape the notice of the "symbolism-happy folks who brought you Unity, N.H."

Odds: Our CW overloads have already decided it's "now safe to say that [Kaine]'s the main object of speculation." But given that speculation requires no real knowledge of Obama's intentions--which a few reliable insiders assure me are not yet set in stone--I'm going to keep things safe and sober and say that Kaine's chances, at this point, are no better than the rest of the rumored shortlisters: Joe Biden, Evan Bayh and Kathleen Sebelius. After all, the buzz is coming from "several sources close to Kaine"--in other words, excited people with a vested interest in keeping Kainemania alive.

It's not that the governor doesn't have his strengths. He does. Of all Obama's potential partners, Kaine would probably prove the most comfortable fit--both on the trail and in the White House. Reports say he and Obama get along swimmingly. They're both relatively young. They've both styled themselves as "postpartisans." (Kaine's father-in-law is former Virginia Gov. Linwood Holton--a Republican.) Neither has spent much time mired in the muck of Washington--Kaine, in fact, has no D.C. experience whatsoever--so selling the ticket as "change" wouldn't seem like a stretch. Like Obama, Kaine is a "devout" Christian with proven experience, both personal and political, in outreach to the religious community. (Kaine spent a year on leave from law school as a missionary in Honduras--mirroring Obama's time in Indonesia--and ran in 2005 as a leader guided by "family and Christian faith." While personally opposed to abortion and capital punishment, he's publicly permissive.) Finally, Kaine is articulate, on-message and scandal-free--again, like Obama. "They will look good and make sense, much as the youthful team of Bill Clinton and Al Gore produced synergy for 1992's Democrats," writes Virginia political pundit Larry Sabato. "Even his enemies admit [Kaine] is unlikely to commit gaffes or deflect attention from the presidential nominee."

While Kaine will merely reinforce Obama's strengths in some areas, he has the potential to enhance his boss-to-be in others. First and foremost is Virginia. As I've written before, the Old Dominion is trending Democratic--Obama leads by an average of one point in the polls--and could very well break blue this year for the first time since 1964, which would probably send McCain straight to the loser's circle. Kaine--who showed in 2005 he can win in the key counties of Arlington, Fairfax and Loudon and now enjoys a 56 percent statewide approval rating--could "add a couple of points to Obama's total," according to Sabato. An added bonus: he's not only a Christian--he's a Spanish-speaking Roman Catholic. Given that he could therefore serve as a liaison to "white ethnic" Rust Belters wary of Obama and Latinos swing voters in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, that's pretty much the most convenient kind of Christian to be. Finally, Kaine has executive experience, and Obama doesn't. He's balanced budgets, worked with a Republican legislature and focused daily on the domestic issues that top this year's list of voter concerns--jobs, the economy, education, transportation, health care. When placing their bets, veepwatchers typically forget to consider how helpful the contenders will be once elected. Obama won't.

So why I am reluctant to hop on the Obama-Kaine bandwagon? Because Kaine has his fair share of drawbacks as well. Some are relatively minor. According to Virginia political experts, he's been an ineffective governor--Sabato places him in "the bottom quartile"--who "has recorded few significant successes and one giant, overriding failure in the transportation field." He's significantly less popular than mentor and predecessor Mark Warner, and it's unclear whether he could actually help deliver Virginia for Obama. His views on abortion and civil unions--he opposes both--could cause some friction on the left. If Kaine left mid-term, a conservative Republican would move into the governor's mansion--a move that could potentially allow the GOP to gerrymander the state's congressional districts. And his one moment in the national spotlight--delivering the Democratic response to the State of the Union in 2006--was a flop.

The dealbreaker, however, could be experience. Even though polls still show that voters question Obama's readiness for the role of Commander in Chief, the candidate himself is apparently uninterested in choosing a running mate solely to bolster his national-security cred. I can understand his reluctance--such a selection would likely emphasize the relative thinness of his resume while doing little to quite quiet critics' concerns. But the difference between Kaine and say, Sebelius, is that Kaine's not only a foreign-policy rookie--he's rookie, period. In fact, he's the only candidate on Obama's list--long or short--who's served less time in *major* statewide office (two-and-a-half years) than Obama himself. Reasonable people can argue over whether this greenness would hamper his vice presidency. But there's little doubt that Kaine's skimpy CV, more than any other top contender's, would help Republicans crystallize their most convincing attack on Obama--he's not ready to lead. Kaine expands the "inexperience" target instead of shrinking it, or even leaving it the same size. As the National Review's Jim Geraghty wrote this morning, Obama and Kaine "would be the most astonishingly inexperienced pair to hit Washington in modern history." Agree or not, the Illinois senator should expect to hear that line every day between now and Nov. 4 if he puts his colleague from Virginia on the ticket.

Ultimately, Obama's decision on Kaine will come down to a simple question. What's more important: conveying "change" or insulating against charges of inexperience? I have no idea how he'll answer. But I'll be watching that barbecue in Union, Mo. tomorrow night--just in case. 

*Added for accuracy, 10:33 p.m.