Loose Threads, Part I: Obama's Growing Christian-Hunter-Soldier-Fat Cat Coalition?

In which we amend, update, augment and/or elaborate on recent Stumper items.

Obama's bid to capture this year's crucial body-surfer vote. (Alex Brandon / AP Photo)

I. Re: "Chasing the Mythical 'Obamacan' Masses" (Aug. 13, 2008) and "More on the Mythical 'Obamacan' Masses" (Aug. 14, 2008) 
In the first of these posts, we sifted through recent polling data and concluded that "there's little statistical evidence to support the claim that the number of Republicans who favor this year's Democrat is substantially larger than the number of Republicans who favored his predecessors"--despite what many Obama fans, including his promiment Republican endorsers, seem to believe. In the second, we wondered whether people who identified as Republicans in 2004 are now identifying as Independents and voting for Obama--and found, sadly, that Obama and John McCain are tied among non-affiliated voters. So we're sticking by our claim that the 'Obamacan' masses have yet to materialize in any measurable way.

That said, there's been a flood of fascinating findings over the last 48 hinting that the Illinois senator is finding friends in some strange--read, typically Republican--places. For instance, a new poll from the Barna Group, a Christian research firm, shows Obama leading McCain 43 percent to 34 percent among likely Christian voters, with advantages among non-evangelical born again Christians (43% to 31%); notional Christians (44% to 28%); people aligned with faiths other than Christianity (56% to 24%); Catholics (39% vs. 29%); and Protestants (43% to 34%). The only Christian subgroup he isn't winning? Evangelicals. Even there, though, a recent survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life found that while a majority of young white evangelicals describe themselves as conservative on social issues, slightly more are identifying this year as either Independents or Democrats than as Republicans--the reason, perhaps, why the gap between Obama and McCain among evangelicals overall is currently 15 points smaller than George W. Bush's lead over John Kerry in 2004, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. You can almost hear the "hallelujahs" wafting over Chicago.

The hints of an expanded Obama coalition don't stop there. According to a Congressional Sportsmen's Foundation poll released Wednesday, McCain leads Obama by 45 percent to 31 percent among hunters and fishermen--"only about half the 27-point edge respondents say they gave Bush over Kerry four years ago and far short of the 65 percent gun owners gave to Bush over Gore's 15 percent in 2000," writes Politico's Glenn Thrush. An analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics, meanwhile, shows that U.S. soldiers deployed overseas have donated nearly six times as much money to Obama as to McCain, who trails by more than $55,000 in overall contributions from military personnel (Obama has attracted 859 military donors to McCain's 558). Similarly, Obama has attracted $9.6 million in donations from employees working for securities, mortgage and drug companies, compared with McCain's $6.6 million--a reversal from 2004, when people in those industries gave $10.6 million to Bush and $5.4 million to Kerry. Christians, hunters, soldiers and fat cats--sounds pretty Republican to us.

Of course, there are ways to explain away these stats. Sportsmen and believers are wary of McCain, but may break for him in the end; Obama has netted far more money and amassed far more donors than McCain overall--a sign of enthusiasm, not raw votes--so it's only logical that he'd lead even among some traditionally Republican demographic groups. That said, it's impossible to ignore that each of these brushstrokes conveniently contributes to a larger image--that is, an image of Obama as this year's crossover candidate. We fully expect his camp to push this theme hard between now and Nov. 4. And while we still haven't seen any solid empirical evidence to suggest that Obamacans will make a difference on Election Day--either because McCain's own crossover appeal cancels out their influence or there weren't enough of them around to begin with--we're definitely keeping our eyes peeled.