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Pawlenty's Close Call

(AP Photo / Charles Rex Arbogast)
 
ST. PAUL, Minn.--There's a joke making the rounds here at the Republican National Convention: Some veep runners-up miss the White House by hair's breadth. Tim Pawlenty missed it by one chromosome.
 
Gender, of course, was only one of the many reasons McCain chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin over Pawlenty. But that doesn't change the fact that the Minnesota governor was extremely close to getting the gig. Indeed, Pawlenty didn't discover that he'd lost out until shortly before Palin stepped on stage in Dayton last Friday--and even then, he had to guess. "When I wasn't traveling to Ohio Thursday night, I was able to deduce that I wasn't selected," he told NEWSWEEK this afternoon. (McCain called "around breakfast on Friday morning" to confirm his hunch.) Ultimately--as McCain confidant Lindsey Graham admitted this morning-- "John was [just] looking at trying to do something different."
 
The question now, however, may be "how different?" Forget the Us Weekly stories about Palin's pregnant daughter, Down syndrome baby and DUI husband that have dominated the first days of the convention. The real difference between Palin and her VP predecessors is her dearth of documented views or demonstrable familiarity with the pressing foreign-policy issues of the day. Many voters will readily identify with her family’s struggles--a useful bond in such a personal election. Others will be offended by the suggestion--which is coming from the left, ironically enough--that she should sacrifice her career to stay at home. But no one can deny that her actual record is unusually thin, and as the campaign chugs its way through the fall, the press and the public will focus on her readiness to occupy the Oval Office above all else.
 
Palin may pass the test will flying colors. She may not. But when I had the pleasure this afternoon (along with a robust roster of NEWSWEEK reporters and editors) of sitting down with Pawlenty to talk Minnesota politics, the presidential race and the VP selection process, one exchange in particular stuck out--if only to raise the question in my mind about what might have been if McCain had chosen another outside-the-Beltway governor with a record of reform and serious blue-collar appeal: 

NEWSWEEK: Governor Palin is getting a lot of questions about her lack of international experience and exposure. Presumably if you had been on the ticket some of those same questions would've been asked about you. When you thought about possibility, how did you consider responding--and how should she respond?
PAWLENTY: I'm not here to argue or suggest it should've been me. Don't take it that way. But for a governor, I--any governor you pick, with very few exceptions, just isn't going to have the type of robust, deep international experience as certain other people do. But I've been to Iraq three times; I've traveled all over the Middle East--Turkey and Jordan and Afghanistan. I have led large trade missions to China twice, to India, to the Czech Republic, to Poland. I've traveled all over Europe. I've been obviously to Mexico. I've been involved as a speaker and presenter at international conferences, including the 44th Annual Security Conference in Munich. I was there with [Joe] Lieberman and Lindsey [Graham] and others.

That's how you would've responded. How does Gov. Palin respond without that list?
--And more. Just to make that point: for a governor I have a relatively active set of international experiences, as compared to former picks... As to her, she has traveled to Kuwait, as I understand it, and Germany, as I recall. She has had experience as an executive, and she has had some experience as the commander in chief of the Alaska National Guard in a time of war. Obviously she does not command and control the national guard for their federal mission, but it does require you to be aware of their comings and goings, their activities and their abilities. There are also statewide missions where you do command and control them. So I presume she's had some experience along those lines.

Again, unless something really shocking surfaces, the petty personal stuff about Palin will probably help McCain more than it will hurt him. And her positives are more positive than Pawlenty's. That said, doubts about Palin's readiness to lead could prove to be a real drag on the ticket in the long run--especially if some debate-night gaffe or "Meet the Press" misstatement reinforces voters' suspicions. So I have to wonder. If Palin's "Potatoe Moment" ever comes, which case will Republicans wish they'd spent the last two months making: the one that Pawlenty would've made for himself, or the one he's making for Palin.

As close calls go, this one may prove to be too close for comfort.

UPDATE, 8:59 p.m.: RNC vice-chairwoman Jo Ann Davidson proudly reports that Republicans will nominate "Sarah Pawlenty":

[youtube:btX1RVbgvzg]

Freudian slip?
 

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Andrew Romano is a senior writer for Newsweek. He reports on politics, culture, and food for the print and Web editions of the magazine and appears frequently on CNN and MSNBC. His 2008 campaign blog, Stumper, won MINOnline's Best Consumer Blog award and was cited as one of the cycle's best news blogs by both Editor & Publisher and the Deadline Club of New York. Follow Andrew on Twitter.

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