The Tricky Politics of McCain's Maneuver

In a statement delivered this afternoon in New York City, John McCain announced that he will temporarily suspend his presidential campaign Thursday morning and return to Washington to address the financial crisis. As a result, he requested that Friday's foreign-policy debate in Oxford, Miss., be delayed and urged rival Barack Obama to join him in the capital for a summit with top congressional leaders.

"I am calling on the president to convene a meeting with the leadership from both houses of Congress, including Senator Obama and myself," McCain said. "It is time for both parties to come together to solve this problem."

The announcement comes a day after this blog noted the remarkable similarities between McCain and Barack Obama's lists of recommended "improvements" for the mammoth $700 billion Treasury bailout bill--and criticized both candidates for continuing to "us[e] the bailout to bludgeon each other daily on the campaign trail," suggesting that the real political advantage might lie elsewhere. Namely, in the swamp.

"Why don't the two most powerful politicians in the country at this point--two politicians who profess to be uncommonly bipartisan--go back to Washington and lead the bipartisan effort to get America out of this catastrophic financial mess?" we asked. "Why don't they steer Congress in the direction--toward Main Street and away from Wall Street--they both agree it should go?"

Now, it seems, that's exactly what McCain intends to do. There's no doubt that much of Arizona senator's motivation is political. According to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, Obama's double-digit advantage on handling the Wall Street meltdown has propelled him to a 52-43 percent lead among likely voters, up from a 47-49 percent McCain advantage immediately after the Republican National Convention. Other polls--both state and national--have shown a similar swing. By "suspending" his campaign and heading back to the Beltway, McCain is doing a couple things. He's shifting the narrative away from his dismal numbers and campaign manager Rick Davis's ties to Freddie Mac. He's attempting to counter the growing impression that he's ill-equipped to serve as the economy's steward by displaying "leadership" in a time of crisis. He's wriggling out of the box congressional Dems were hoping to squeeze him into. He's potentially postponing the foreign-policy debate to a time when it would have greater impact. And he's seeking to rise above the fray and reinforce the message that he "puts country before politics." To emphasize that theme, McCain has canceled tonight's appearance on David Letterman and instructed his staff to take his campaign commercials off the air. Will voters find his decision to "take action" compelling--even though he doesn't sit on any of the relevant committees? We'll see soon enough.

The maneuver has the added benefit--at least for McCain--of putting Obama in a bit of bind. Either the Illinois senator flies from Florida to Washington and looks as if he's following McCain's lead or he dismisses McCain's move as a stunt and gives the GOP more fodder to call Obama an "all talk, no action" phony who puts "self before country." Either option has the potential to undermine Obama's greatest advantage--the perception that he's the better economic leader. For Chicago, the delicate political calculus was immediately apparent, as Obama spokesman Bill Burton swiftly claimed credit for the new spirit of solidarity in an e-mail to reporters that said it was Obama who called McCain this morning to pitch a joint statement "outlining their shared principles and conditions for the Treasury proposal and urging Congress and the White House to act in a bipartisan manner to pass such a proposal." Within minutes, the McCain campaign disputed Burton's timeline, saying that McCain never received the morning call and had subsequently proposed the "suspension" to Obama at 2:30 p.m. with no knowledge of Obama's original pitch. Call it the politics of pretending to suspend politics.

Despite Chicago's touchiness, there's no guarantee that McCain will benefit politically from his latest gambit. Voters might conclude he's avoiding a debate that--despite its ostensible focus on foreign policy--promised to touch on uncomfortable economic issues, as well. After all, McCain could potentially work on the bill and then travel to Mississippi--an argument the debate's organizers and the Obama campaign are sure to make in the hours ahead. Some moderates may see this maneuver as further evidence of McCain's erratic, impulsive temperament. Others could interpret it as a desperate gimmick, given that McCain's isn't "suspending" anything other than two days of debate prep. The Democratic congressional leadership won't make it easy for McCain to claim victory, which will further politicize the process. (Harry Reid is already saying his presence "would not be helpful"--even after urging McCain to get involved yesterday.) And if the final bailout is unpopular with the public--which seems likely--McCain could be blamed. So there are significant risks involved. 

But for today, this is almost all upside for McCain, at least politically. He presents himself as a bipartisan leader. He puts Obama on the defensive. He shifts the media narrative onto favorable terrain and dominates the news. And politics aside, there's the always a chance--which I flicked at yesterday--that rolling up his sleeves and engaging in a little bipartisan action will actually help make the bill better. That question is whether the benefits will last. As the New Republic's Michael Crowley notes, the ultimate assessment of McCain's gambit should hinge on whether he "play[s] a convincingly important and useful role in the Washington legislative process, one that pleases independents and his base alike." And that's significantly more difficult than simply skipping Letterman.

UPDATE, 4:45 p.m.:  From Florida, Obama responds by calling for the debate to proceed as planned--and mocking McCain's apparent unwillingness to multitask:

“It’s my belief that this is exactly the time the American people need to hear from the person who in approximately 40 days will be responsible with dealing with this mess ... What I think is important is that we don’t suddenly infuse Capitol Hill with presidential politics ... Presidents are going to have to deal with more than one thing at a time. It’s not necessary for us to think that we can do only one thing, and suspend everything else."

Strikes me as reasonable--the best he could do in a difficult situation. Obama also recounted his version of the timeline to make the important point that if McCain were really interested in bipartisan solutions he would've settled on a plan in private before going in front of the cameras. "The only possible miscommunication might have been how quickly there was an announcement and somebody was on television," Obama said. "My assumption was that the joint statement would go out--initially."

My hunch is that Friday's debate won't happen unless Congress miraculously hammers out an agreement before then. McCain can't go back on his suspension without looking weak--so I suspect he'll skip it.

The bottom line: the political success of McCain's maneuver will turn on whether the public sees him as shirking his duties as a presidential candidate or fulfilling his duties as a public servant.

UPDATE, 9:26 p.m.: Via Ben Smith:

CNN reports that McCain's campaign is proposing swapping the planned Friday debate for next Thursday's vice presidential debate if, and only if, there isn't a bailout deal reached by Friday. There was already a reasonable chance that a deal would be reached by Friday; now, if it is, McCain can declare victory and head to Mississippi, having retaken some of the initiative.