The Filter: Sept. 25, 2008

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories.

CHANGE ELECTION TURNS OUT CONVENTIONAL
(John F. Harris and Jim VandeHei, Politico)
This was supposed to be the year when everything about presidential politics would change. Instead, the 2008 campaign is hurtling toward its conclusion as a year in which most things have stayed drearily the same.  Recall the early promise of 2008: There would be two candidates who spent the past several years expressing disdain for the stale partisanship of Washington and the stupid pet tricks that characterize presidential campaigns. There was an electorate supposedly hungering not for a change of leaders but a change in the fundamental ways in which politicians compete and debate ideas and solve problems... Well, forget it: Six weeks before Election Day, a day before the first scheduled debate, the forces of innovation and authenticity are being routed by the forces of conventionality and cliché. There are many reasons why this is so. Part of the answer is that Obama and McCain are more timid and less creative figures than they looked to be a year ago. The larger story is that the incentives in American politics rewarding politics as usual—especially in our own business, the media—are far more powerful than either candidate’s tentative and inconsistent impulses to challenge politics as usual.

FIRST DEBATE UP IN AIR AS MCCAIN STEPS OFF THE TRAIL
(Elisabeth Bumiller and Jeff Zeleny, New York Times)
The political maneuvering came as the financial bailout continued to dominate Washington, the headlines and the concerns of ordinary Americans. On Wednesday evening, both Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, accepted President Bush’s invitation to meet with him on Thursday to address the crisis. Mr. McCain’s actions not only cast doubt on whether the highly anticipated debate would come off, but also thrust an unpredictable new element into the negotiations for the bailout, with some Democrats warning that Mr. McCain’s intervention could derail progress being made on the rescue package. Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic majority leader, said Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama should not return to Washington and inject presidential politics into the bailout negotiations. “We need leadership, not a photo op,” a statement issued by Mr. Reid said. But Republicans, eager for political cover from Mr. McCain on a bailout proposal that members of both parties see as deeply unpopular in the country, embraced his return. 

FINANCIAL CRISIS UPENDS CAMPAIGN
(Laura Meckler, Elizabeth Holmes and Christopher Cooper, Wall Street Journal)
The latest twists in the neck-and-neck campaign landed in the middle of a week when troubles on Wall Street and Washington's reaction came to dominate the contest, leaving both Sens. McCain and Obama scrambling to figure out how best to respond. Sen. McCain cast his actions Wednesday as bold moves that rise above partisanship. Barely a week ago, both men had suspended activities to mark the anniversary of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and Sen. McCain evoked the event again. "Our national leaders came together in a time of crisis," he said in a statement. "We must show that kind of patriotism now." It was unclear whether the return of Sens. McCain and Obama to the capital would provide the jolt needed to reach a bipartisan deal that gives cover to politicians of both parties. And it was unclear who would benefit most from the new jockeying between the presidential contenders. The Arizona lawmaker also moved to take down his advertising Wednesday, and the dramatic gestures were in keeping with a career with many such moments. As in the past, it was both high risk and high reward. It draws attention to him at a time when Democrats stand to benefit from economic turmoil and helps him recast the question as one of leadership, where he is viewed positively. But he risks coming off as exploiting a very real problem for political gain.

SELFLESS OR RECKLESS? MCCAIN GAMBLES ON VOTERS' VERDICT
(Dan Balz, Washington Post)
The Republican presidential nominee is hoping that his abrupt decision to suspend campaigning, seek a delay of Friday's debate with Democrat Barack Obama, and return to Washington to help prod negotiations over a financial rescue package will be seen as the kind of country-first, bipartisan leadership he believes Americans want. What he risks, if things don't go as he hopes, is a judgment by voters that his move was a reckless act by an impetuous and struggling politician that hardened partisan lines in Washington at just the wrong moment and complicated efforts to deal with the biggest financial crisis in more than half a century... Much now will depend on whether McCain can deliver results and whether there is a constructive role for him and Obama, or whether they become a sideshow to the real negotiations. But Obama's course carries risks as well, if he looked as if he were standing on the sidelines while McCain pushed for intervention that could help avert further damage to the nation's economy. The standoff over the debate left both candidates in potentially awkward positions, although there is plenty of time for it to be resolved. McCain may be reluctant to climb down from his insistence that the debate be delayed until there is an agreement on a package, but he could be seen as scuttling an important event for voters eager to see the two candidates side by side. Obama, on the other hand, may look high-handed if he insists on going ahead as negotiations in Washington reach a critical moment by this weekend.

STUNT MAN
(John Dickerson, Slate)
It's not clear what, exactly, McCain is going to do in Washington. He doesn't sit on any of the relevant committees, and everyone is already deep in negotiations. Still, he's coming anyway. It doesn't make much logical sense. The only way to understand it is politically: In a presidential campaign, the surest sign that a candidate is playing politics on an issue is when he claims not to be playing politics on an issue... McCain's maneuver might look phony—but then, he and Obama have been engaging in phony activities since this financial crisis hit. Both candidates have been huddling with economic brains, as if they were already a government in waiting. They've both tried to act in ways that help voters see them as competent crisis managers. Perhaps McCain will help us define that line between the charades that voters allow and those they think are ridiculous, but he got an assist from the president. Bush called for a bipartisan meeting with congressional leaders and for McCain and Obama to talk about the crisis. Obama had to accept, a tacit buy-in into the McCain strategy. McCain and Obama also issued a joint statement calling for bipartisan cooperation... So even if McCain has to spend the next several days defending his motivations, he may be able to do so at least partially on his terms. Voters might see it as a transparent political act, or they might just hear "McCain takes bold action in response to crisis."

A BIZARRE GAME OF CHICKEN
(Walter Shapiro, Slate)
If McCain actually boycotts the Oxford debate, Obama may score a public-relations coup while his Republican rival looks weak and evasive. Or the Democratic nominee may appear too political while McCain puts on his mantle as statesman... The three presidential debates and the single veep one have been carefully scheduled around Jewish holidays, Monday night football and other major religious occasions. If, for example, the negotiations over the fiscal-market rescue plan continue through the weekend, the first available date to reschedule would be the night of Wednesday, Oct. 1, because Rosh Hashanah begins Monday night. But Thursday night, the 2nd, Joe Biden and Sarah Palin are scheduled to have their own evening in the spotlight, a contest that once threatened to overshadow McCain vs. Obama... Barring an agreement in Washington beforehand, it is hard to imagine that Friday's debate will actually happen, since McCain now would look weak if he suddenly gave way in response to public pressure to relent. Also, any disruption of his debate-prep schedule would presumably undermine McCain's performance. But then there is the Palin factor. At a time when the Republican campaign only puts Palin forward in tightly scripted settings, delaying her rendezvous with Biden would inevitably give rise to speculation that the first-term Alaska governor had yet to master her briefing books.

FOR THE NOMINEES, NEW ROLES AND NEW RISKS
(Michael Cooper, New York Times)
Senators John McCain and Barack Obama became the leaders of their respective parties in an entirely new way Wednesday, as Congress looked to them for guidance — and political cover — on the proposed $700 billion rescue of the financial sector, a bailout that many lawmakers fear will prove unpopular even if they think it necessary. The new role is a risky one for both presidential nominees. It puts them directly on the line over an issue whose politics are mutating almost by the hour, forcing them to balance a sense that the country is angry about the prospect of being stuck with the bill for Wall Street’s excesses against a chance that failure to act quickly could have dire economic consequences... The politics are especially complex for Mr. McCain, who took the bigger gamble earlier in the day by assertively claiming a leadership role, saying he would suspend his campaign to help broker a solution and calling on Mr. Obama to postpone their first debate, scheduled for Friday night. After weeks of increasingly aggressive attacks on Mr. Obama — and no doubt aware of a series of polls suggesting an erosion in his support — Mr. McCain cast himself as willing to set aside partisan politics to do what was right for the country, and challenged Mr. Obama to do the same. But he now also faces the task of rallying support from his own party, which is divided over the rescue and has long viewed him with a degree of wariness.

THE FIRST DEBATE COULD BE DECISIVE
(Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal)
Presidential debates are important -- and the first debate is the most important of all, establishing an arc of opinion that persists unless jarred loose by big mistakes or dramatic events. So whether this year's first presidential debate between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain is Friday night or postponed a few days, it may be the fall's most critical event. In the nine first debates since 1960, the perceived winner of the debate averaged a 4.2 point net swing in the Gallup poll. Mr. Obama fought hard to have the first clash devoted to foreign policy and the last on the economy. It may be smart to end the series on his strongest turf. But that means the debates start on ground where Mr. McCain is more comfortable, having a sizable poll lead on who'd be a better commander in chief... The story line of the coverage afterward can do almost as much to shape perception as much as the debate itself. Mr. Gore was on defense for weeks after his '00 sighing fit. Mr. Obama has more recent debate experience, and he's wise to have spent three days in Florida resting. Mr. McCain, by contrast, has campaigned with little rest and rehearsal. This is dangerous. Mood and countenance matter as much as command of issues. A debate tie goes to the frontrunner. With that now being Mr. Obama by a slim margin, Mr. McCain must emerge the clear winner, or his prospects of being the next president will dim.

MCCAIN'S THREE-ACT PLAY
(Peter Wehner, Commentary)
My guess is that Act III will focus considerable attention on Barack Obama’s liberalism... Obama is, based on his record, the most liberal person nominated by the Democratic Party since George McGovern... The McCain campaign has not fully exploited this fact. In the home stretch of the campaign, I suspect it will. America remains a center-right nation, and Obama’s political philosophy and past stands on the issue are out of step–and in some instances wildly out of step–with where most of the nation is. Obama, understanding this weakness, has attempted to portray himself as a centrist. The challenge for the McCain campaign is to convince voters that Obama’s instincts and record are very much contrary to that. McCain needs to go further and argue, in a persuasive manner, that if Obama were to become president he would, in conjunction with a Democratic Congress, govern from the left/hard left. The other, related topic the McCain campaign needs to focus on is Obama’s radical associations, from the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, to the unrepentant terrorist William Ayers, to the corrupt Tony Rezko, to others. To raise these matters in an honest manner is fully legitimate and, in fact, fully appropriate. Individuals are rightly judged by their past associations. (Can you imagine the intense, unremitting press interest if McCain had a close, long-time relationship with a pastor who was a white supremacist; or if McCain began his political career seeking the support and blessing of a person responsible for bombing abortion clinics?)

SOME VOTERS AREN'T WAITING UNTIL ELECTION DAY TO CAST BALLOTS
(Peter Nicholas, Los Angeles Times) 
The campaign isn't over, but the voting is underway. Before watching the presidential debates and without waiting for the next round of TV ads, millions of voters who have made up their minds about John McCain and Barack Obama will cast ballots before election day, thanks to expansive new early-voting laws. In parts of Georgia, voting began last week. In Iowa, residents may vote at county auditor offices starting today. And in Ohio, a battleground state that Obama and McCain each view as crucial to making it into the White House, voting opens Tuesday... More than 30 states have adopted methods allowing people to vote before Nov. 4 -- no excuses needed. About 14% of the electorate chose early balloting in the 2000 campaign. That figure jumped to 20% in 2004, and this time around it could rise to more than 30%.... Both presidential campaigns encourage early voting, particularly among people who tend to vote sporadically. Over roughly a six-week period, the two sides can target people in that demographic with mailings, phone calls and in-person visits in hopes of banking their votes.