The Filter: Oct. 9, 2008

A round-up of this morning's must-read stories. 

INVISIBLE MAN
(David Samuels, New Republic)
My own belief is that Barack Obama has the makings of an unusual and unusually effective president, because he might combine a writer's sense of the dramatic moment, and of how language helps to shape reality, with the brain--and perhaps the soul--of a Harvard-educated technocrat. At the same time, I find it hard not to wonder about how President Obama will see the world, and what the major fault lines in his personality might be. The fact that the talking heads and the voters alike are unable to see him plain is an optic effect that Obama anticipates in his first book. It is no accident that the literary model for Obama's narrative of self is Ellison's Invisible Man, just as it is no accident that liberals and conservatives alike seem to be talking about five or six wildly different people when they talk about Obama, none of whom bears all that much resemblance to the narrator of Dreams. 

WHAT SHOULD MCCAIN DO?
(Ross Douthat, The Atlantic)
Six words: Aggressive pandering to the middle class... The next time the stock market has a really bad day (i.e., tomorrow), he should "huddle with his advisers" and announce that in light of the epic crisis, he's going to postpone his entire domestic agenda (such as it is) for, say, two years in favor of a short-term but expensive stimulus package aimed directly at the middle and working class. Last night's "homeownership resurgence plan"--which was the best pander he's produced since the financial crisis started--could be part of this package, but it should take a back seat to a proposal for short-term and substantial middle-class tax relief. The crisis is taking money out of people's pockets; McCain should promise to put a lot of money right back into them, and to do so immediately, with as large a tax rebate as he thinks he can propose without the media laughing him to scorn... While four weeks of aggressive pandering to the middle class probably wouldn't win him this election, it's a strategy that has the virtue of actually addressing itself to the massive, massive anxieties that Americans are experiencing at the moment, as opposed to addressing itself to issues that voters, I suspect, perceive as tangential at best.

THE OBAMA SURGE: WILL IT LAST?
(Joe Klein, Time)
We are witnessing something remarkable here: Obama's race is receding as he becomes more familiar. His steadiness has trumped his skin color; he is being judged on the content of his character. But there is a real challenge — and opportunity — inherent in his success. Obama has taken some inspired risks in this campaign. His willingness to propose more governmental control of the health-care market is a prime example. But he has also been very cautious, a typical politician in many ways. The most obvious is in his resolute unwillingness to deliver bad news or make any significant demands on the public. Neither he nor McCain had anything but platitudes to offer when asked what sacrifices they would ask of the American people. Worse, when Brokaw asked if he thought the economy was going to get worse before it gets better, Obama flatly said, "No. I'm confident about the economy." That was, no doubt, the politic answer. But not the correct one. Obama was underestimating the public's capacity to hear the truth... If he wants to do more than merely succeed, if he wants to govern successfully, he is going to have to trust the people as much as they are beginning to trust him. After years of happy talk from politicians, that is the change we really need.

OBAMA WRAPS HIS HOPES IN ECONOMIC ANXIETY
(Patrick Healy, New York Times)
Unlike his opponent, Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee, Mr. Obama does not brand himself as the “straight talk” candidate, but he has presented himself as a change agent with new, workable, bipartisan ideas for the economy. His remarks on Wednesday were only the latest, though, to reveal a disconnect between his optimistic promises and the trickier work of enacting an agenda in a polarized capital now gripped by a financial crisis. In short, Mr. Obama continues to promise that everything will get better once he is president, but does not explain how his programs and governing philosophy will adjust to new economic realities. He said Wednesday that Americans needed to unite to avoid “a dark and painful recession,” even though many economists say that a recession has already begun, and that pain may be inevitable. Mr. Obama also turned to placing blame for the economy on President Bush and charging that all Mr. McCain offers are personal attacks and “more of the same Bush economics that led us into this mess the first place.”

DEM STRATEGISTS SEE LANDSLIDE IN THE MAKING
(David Paul Kuhn, Politico)
Three weeks of historic economic upheaval has done more than just tilt a handful of once-reliably Republican states in Barack Obama’s direction. Democratic strategists are now optimistic that the ongoing crisis could lead to a landslide Obama victory. Four large states McCain once seemed well-positioned to win—Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida—have in recent weeks shifted toward Obama. If Obama were to win those four states—a scenario that would represent a remarkable turn of events—he would likely surpass 350 electoral votes.  Under almost any feasible scenario, McCain cannot win the presidency if he loses any of those four states. And if Obama actually captured all four states, it would almost certainly signal a strong electoral tide that would likely sweep the Southwestern swing states—Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada—not to mention battlegrounds from New Hampshire to Iowa to Missouri. One month ago Democratic strategist Paul Maslin, who closely tracks the electoral map, thought that perhaps Democrats would win by a couple percentage points... “Now it’s a whole different world,” Maslin said. “The economy is way beyond 1992. In 1980, it was Iran hostage crisis and the economy. I’ve never seen an issue take this kind of prominence.”

MCCAIN CAMPAIGN TRIES TO SEE GLASS AS HALF FULL
(Dan Balz, Washington Post)
Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, told reporters after the debate that he still likes his candidate's situation. Better, he said, to be defending red states than having to convert blue states to win. McCain has a lot of them to defend -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. DuHaime said there is evidence that McCain is catching up to Obama in the battle to mobilize voters. The past two weeks, he said, the campaign has contacted more voters, by phone and door-to-door, than the vaunted Bush machine did in comparable weeks four years ago. One week, he said, was 40 percent higher than last year. Part of that is the Palin effect. McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate brought a surge of new volunteers to the effort. They are helping to produce mountains of data -- the results of every call are entered into a database overnight for the campaign and officials at the Republican National Committee to parse. When combined with other information, the team can see how McCain is improving or slipping among different categories of voters, sliced every which way through microtargeting analysis.

VOTERS HAVEN'T DECIDED YET
(Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal)
There are probably more undecided and persuadable voters open to switching their choice than in any election since 1968... What matters now is how well the candidates prosecute the themes they have laid out in the election's remaining 26 days. Interest is high. People are paying more attention than usual. Each faces a big challenge. Mr. McCain's is that events have tilted the field towards Mr. Obama. To win, Mr. McCain must demonstrate he stands for responsible conservative change, while portraying Mr. Obama as an out-of-the-mainstream liberal not ready to be president. Mr. Obama's test is that voters haven't shaken deep concerns about his lack of qualifications. Having accomplished virtually nothing in his three years in the Senate except to win the Democratic nomination, Mr. Obama must show he is up to the job. Voters like him, conditions favor him, yet he has not closed the sale. He may be approaching the finish line with that mixture of lassitude and insouciance he displayed in the spring against Mrs. Clinton. But here's a warning sign for Mr. Obama. Of recent candidates, only Michael Dukakis in 1988 has had a larger percentage of voters tell pollsters they believe he lacks the necessary qualifications to be president.

UNCOMMITTEDS AND PERSUADABLES IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
(Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight)
Is it true that there are an unusually high number of swing voters this year? Not really, although it may be slightly higher than average. Let's go to the video tape ... err... the Gallup Polling archive... In the Gallup tracking poll that straddled October 1st, 8 percent of voters were unaccounted for. This figure is significantly higher than 2004, an unusually partisan election in which just 2 percent of voters were unaccounted for. But, it was no higher than 2000 or 1976, and lower than in 1988. On average, since 1936, 6.8 percent of voters were unaccounted for in the Gallup poll as of October 1st, as compared this year's 8 percent; the difference is not statistically significant. If we look only at results since 1960 -- Gallup's polling was a little sketchy in its early years -- the average number of unaccounteds is 6.4 percent. So this year's figure is probably toward the higher end of the spectrum, but well within the normal range.

MCCAIN PLAN DRAWS DOUBTS FROM EXPERTS ON MORTGAGES
(Dina ElBoghdady, Washington Post)
Many details of the plan were unclear yesterday, but the few that emerged led some mortgage industry experts to criticize the plan as flawed and say that the $300 billion estimate is unrealistic given its scope and the magnitude of the housing crisis... Under the $700 billion bailout plan, the Treasury Department already has authority to buy residential mortgages as well as mortgage securities. And under the housing bill, the FHA already can refinance troubled loans, building on an effort underway since last year. But the problem is this: Many borrowers these days are struggling because they are under water, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth. Helping them has proved tricky because someone has to take a financial hit in bailing them out. To protect itself, when the FHA gets involved now with refinancing a troubled mortgage, it will insure a loan for only up to 90 percent of the home's current value. Lenders must voluntarily agree to forgive the rest of the debt for borrowers who have no equity. Many lenders have resisted, which explains why only 1 percent of the 369,000 people who have refinanced through the FHA in the past year were delinquent. McCain plans to overcome lender resistance by bypassing them, Holtz-Eakin said yesterday.

GOING FOR BROKE IN PENNSYLVANIA
(Mike Madden, Salon)
McCain’s choice for a last stand is starting to look as though it might not work out much better than Custer’s. Recent polls show the state slipping away from McCain — even in the “bitter” parts of the state where Clinton racked up her biggest margins six months ago. And Obama is outspending McCain on TV here, having dropped $2.2 million on ads last week, while McCain spent $1.6 million. McCain visited Bethlehem, Pa., Wednesday, with Sarah Palin. But even if he can narrow the gap with Obama, which is widening with the worsening economy, increasingly optimistic Democrats say McCain will run into fatal problems in Philadelphia.

GOP FACING TOUGHER BATTLE FOR CONGRESS
(Carl Hulse and David M. Herszenhorn, New York Times)
The economic upheaval is threatening to topple Republican Congressional candidates, putting more Senate and House seats within Democratic reach less than a month before the elections, lawmakers and campaign strategists say. Top campaign officials for both parties, pollsters and independent experts say the intense focus on the economic turmoil and last week’s bailout vote have combined to rapidly expand a Democratic advantage in Congressional contests. Analysts now predict a Democratic surge on a scale that seemed unlikely just weeks ago, with even some Republicans in traditional strongholds fighting for their political careers, and Democratic leaders dreaming of ironclad majorities.