Should McCain Worry About West Virginia?

Barack Obama's sizable advantages in both national and battleground surveys have held steady for at least a week. So it's only natural that the chattering classes would start to get antsy. Eager for the next plot twist--and running out of stuff to say on cable--a number of pundits have taken to speculating about whether Obama will win this or that red state. First it was North Carolina, which looks plausible enough. Then it was Missouri--also a possibility. But now that talk has turned to West Virginia, I feel as if it's my solemn journalistic duty to deliver a bit of a reality check.

Simply put, McCain shouldn't sweat the Mountain State.  

In defense of Chris Matthews and Co., it's easy to see why it's such an attractive subject for speculation. For decades, the thoroughly working-class West Virginia--one of only two states to vote for Jimmy Carter in 1980 AND Michael Dukakis in 1988--was among the bluest states in the union. In fact, Republicans managed to win West Virginia only twice between 1960 and 1996--during the massive GOP landslides of 1972 and 1984. But now the tables have turned. In 2000, the state chose George W. Bush over Al Gore, 52 to 46 percent; four years later, Bush doubled his winning margin to 13 points. The story--for what its worth--was that West Virginia's white working class had chosen to vote its values (Republicans) over its economic interests (Democrats).

Now, after a May primary in which Hillary Clinton clobbered Obama 67 to 26--a result that generated a flurry of stories about Obama's "Appalachian problem," most with Charleston datelines--an Obama victory on Election Day would provide the commentariat with "proof" of the grand theory it's already advancing as to "why Obama won": because the economy trumped race. As if on cue, the polling average in West Virginia has narrowed to 2.2 points since the start of the month. Meanwhile, reports have surfaced that Obama is advertising in markets that bleed across the Ohio and Virginia borders--and, as a result, Sarah Palin was said to be embarking on a defensive bus tour. Sensing a potential shift, Beltway sage Charlie Cook moved the Mountain State into his toss-up column over the weekend, and the cable newsniks began repeating the words "Obama is even winning West Virginia!" as if it were some sort of mantra.

Now for the reality check. Palin did land in Kenova, W. Va. yesterday morning--but only for geographic convenience. She quickly drove across the border into Ohio, and so far, there have been no signs--no visits, no ads, no nothing--suggesting that either Obama or McCain is paying particular attention to the state. That's undoubtedly the right decision. While it's true that the average polling gap between McCain and Obama is smaller this month than last, that's only because of a single sounding: the Oct. 8 survey from American Research Group, which shows Obama leading by eight. One poll, however, does not a trend make. Previous Mountain State surveys showed McCain ahead by four to eight points; it would be irresponsible to ignore them until another pollster puts out some stats. ARG is famous--or infamous--for quirky results, and the prediction whizzes at FiveThirtyEight still give McCain a 67 percent chance of victory.

Could Obama win? Absolutely. But ultimately it doesn't matter whether the economy has boosted the Democrat in West Virginia, or by how much. It simply won't be one of this year's tipping point states. For West Virginia's five electoral votes to make a difference, they'd have to be putting Obama over the top--adding, for example, to a map that includes John Kerry's 2004 properties plus Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. But if Obama's winning white, working-class West Virginia, it's pretty much impossible to imagine that he hasn't already won less white, less working-class Ohio (20 electoral votes) and Virginia (13)--both states where he's actually ahead the polls. In fact, FiveThirtyEight predicts that Obama will also win Colorado, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina before he wins West Virginia. Meaning that if the Illinois senator does manage swing the Mountain State, he'll already have a whopping 350 electoral votes in his pocket--and, with them, the presidency.

Bottom line: McCain shouldn't worry about West Virginia. He simply has too many other states to stress about.