Yes, Mr. McCain. It Does Seem to Be as Bad as It Looks

Could things get any worse for John McCain? On the heels of last weekend's second quarter presidential fund-raising deadline, the Arizona senator announced today that he'd raised just $11 million during the last three months. That's even less than what he raised during the first quarter, when he trailed Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani by millions. Back then, McCain blamed himself for not setting up enough fundraisers so that people could donate money to him. But after months of McCain spending in upwards of three to four days a week soliciting funds, that can no longer be his excuse. The most shocking number however isn't what he raised, but how much he spent. McCain's campaign said Monday they have just $2 million in the bank, which means he's likely spent more than any other presidential hopeful in the race, Democrat or Republican. As a result, his campaign announced serious cost-cutting measures. As many as 50 staffers will be laid off and many of his senior aides will work without pay. Among those working for free until things turn around: Terry Nelson, McCain's campaign manager. It's a surprising turn of events for a guy who was once considered the Republican to beat in 2008. Team McCain originally believed they could raise $100 million this year, but in a conference call with reporters, Nelson today bluntly admitted they were wrong.

After running in 2000 as the anti-establishment candidate, McCain tried to woo the party's conservative base and its financial elite, but he never quite gained acceptance from either. Among other things, he got a bad rap for his leadership on campaign finance reform, which most of his party hates, and his tendency to join sides with Democrats, like Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton. Lately, McCain has run afoul of many Republicans for his moderate views on immigration reform. But lately, McCain's biggest foe has been the perception that he's a losing candidate. Rival campaigns have whispered about disarray and out of control spending in the McCain camp-rumors that McCain himself has frequently disputed. But numbers don't lie. We'll have to wait until McCain files his report with the Federal Election Commission to see where all of his money went, but McCain has bigger problems on the horizon. For one, his close friend and onetime colleague Fred Thompson is expected to jump in the 2008 fray any day now, and he and McCain share virtually identical views on many issues. In other words, McCain is going to have to fight to give voters a good reason to support him, even his candidacy looks dead in the water. But McCainiacs have one unusual source of inspiration these days: John Kerry's 2004 campaign. The Massachusetts senator lagged behind everyone in the opening year of the campaign-in poll numbers and especially in finances. But Kerry came from behind with strong victories in Iowa and New Hampshire to capture the Democratic nomination-states where McCain has spent millions setting up state infrastructure. It's unclear if McCain can pull off the same magic in a year when the GOP primary is unusually crowded, but for now, he's still trying.