How Worried Should Obama Be About His Poll Numbers?

Today’s headlines are screaming with bad news for President Obama. Two significant polls─from The Wall Street Journal/NBC and The New York Times/CBS─show support for his health-care-reform plans slipping, alongside his general approval rating. This is perhaps an unsurprising development when health care is dominating the national debate. History has proven repeatedly that this issue is kryptonite for presidents. Health-care reform is an easy issue to dog─it’s far simpler to criticize a system than fix it, and promoting fear of change is easier than explaining the complex nuances of policy alterations. Simply put, health care is a really hard sell, even for gifted communicators. Just ask Bill Clinton.

So just how bad are these polls for the president? They’re certainly worrying, but in my view there are hopeful signs. We in the news media delight in dramatic narratives, and these polls can easily paint a damaging picture. But there is enough conflicting evidence in the numbers that the message I’m taking away is this: Americans are hedging. Let’s check out the evidence, starting with the positives.

The Good News for Obama

Although his approval rating has dropped, it is still in the majority and relatively high. Comparisons to Bill Clinton have been thrown around in the press today, but they’re misleading. Yes, only around 41 percent of people approve of Obama’s handling of health care, and yes, that’s about the same about Clinton’s approval ratings in August 1994 when his health-reform plan died. But, those two figures aren’t the right ones to compare. We should be comparing overall approval, where Obama’s is still 12-15 percentage points higher than Clinton’s 41 percent, depending on the poll. That’s good news for Obama─he still has credibility with voters and can build on it. He’s also much further along the process than Clinton was, another reason for him to take heart. Moreover, respondents in the New York Times poll prefer Obama’s ideas on health care to Republicans in Congress 55 percent to 26 percent. 

The polls seem to indicate that Americans both want and fear reform. Take this nugget form The New York Times: “In one finding, 75 percent of respondents said they were concerned that the cost of their own health care would eventually go up if the government did not create a system of providing health care for all Americans. But in another finding, 77 percent said they were concerned that the cost of health care would go up if the government did create such a system.”  They also report that two thirds of people are worried about losing insurance and 80 percent believe the numbers of uninsured will rise if reform fails.

So, probably as a result of the mixed messages emanating from D.C., respondents worry about reform and at the same time worry about reform failing. This could be an opportunity for Obama, particularly if this insight from NBC plays out: “When read the specifics of his goals for health care—like requiring insurers to cover those with pre-existing conditions, providing low-income families with subsidies to help them afford insurance, and raising taxes on the wealthy to pay for the subsidies—56 percent say they support Obama’s plan. Only 38 percent oppose.” Perhaps what these polls show most clearly is that Obama hasn’t been specific enough in his plans, especially while his opponents have been so explicit in their criticisms. He’s losing because he’s combating particulars with generalities. When respondents are answering questions about “Obama’s plan,” it’s still not even clear what that plan is. The president certainly hasn’t detailed it. In this debate, specifics will always prevail over abstractions, but fortunately for Obama, that’s not such a hard problem to remedy.

The Bad News for Obama

Most of the bad news is obvious (approval slipping, etc.), so there’s no need for me to rehash in detail. The most worrying trend for Obama shouldn’t be top-line numbers but the reasons respondents cite for concern: limiting choice of physicians, increasing out-of-pocket expenses, increasing taxes, etc. The New York Times reports: “69 percent of respondents in the poll said they were concerned that the quality of their own care would decline if the government created a program that covers everyone.” All of this adds up to one thing: GOP talking points are sticking. In an unusual turnaround for his presidency, Obama hasn’t been able to communicate effectively. That’s partly because he is working against history: the concerns listed above haven’t changed since the '90s, or even the '70s. They are the residue of past failed attempts, which is why they’re so sticky. Worries over choice and cost are so deeply ingrained in the American psyche that the best way overcome them is to create a different bogeyman. We’ve seen the White House do that this week, as Obama has shifted his focus to insurance companies, referring repeatedly to “health-insurance reform.” But that strategy is too new for it’s effectiveness to be measured in these polls.

The potency of opposition talking points is double bad news for Obama as Congress heads toward recess. He’s facing a month where the legislation will stall but advertising will ramp up. It will be increasingly difficult for him to control the debate. And Republicans will focus on rallying points, like the public plan, diverting attention away from other critical parts of the debate─like the health-insurance exchange, tax-exempt status, reimbursement regimes, and cost controls. This is exactly why the president wanted a bill passed before August, and exactly why looking down Pennsylvania Avenue at an empty Capitol next month should make him nervous.