The Battle for Kennedy's Seat Begins

Along with his multitudinous gifts as a legislator, Edward Kennedy also held one of the most coveted prizes in the Democratic Party─a Massachusetts seat in the U.S. Senate. Perhaps the bluest of the blue states, election to the Senate from Massachusetts is about as close as a Democratic lawmaker can get to a lifetime appointment. None of Kennedy's personal foibles or controversies ever really hampered his reelection bids. Massachusetts hasn't had a vacant Senate seat since John Kerry won the junior spot in 1984. Now the Kennedy seat is up for grabs. Potential successors have been jockeying for months, even years─albeit quietly, out of respect for the ailing Kennedy. But in the coming weeks, competition for the seat is bound to heat up. 

Succession was clearly on Kennedy's mind in his final days. Under Massachusetts law, a special election must be held within 145 to 160 days of a Senate vacancy. Last week Kennedy penned an emotional letter to his state's lawmakers, asking to amend the procedure to allow Gov. Deval Patrick to appoint a temporary replacement. "It is vital for this Commonwealth to have two voices speaking for the needs of its citizens and two votes in the Senate during the approximately five months between a vacancy and a special election," Kennedy wrote. The subtext: we need 60 votes in the Senate to pass health-care reform.

His letter highlighted an uncomfortable truth for Massachusetts lawmakers: the Democratic-controlled legislature changed the law in 2004 to prevent then-governor Mitt Romney, a Republican, from appointing a successor to John Kerry, who was running for the presidency. To alter the law again would be a blatant act of partisan preservation, but one that liberal blogger Matt Yglesias argues is reasonable. "When you have a state whose state legislature is firmly and forever in the hands of one political party, the smart thing is for the legislature to be constantly changing rules based on short-term considerations. Nothing’s stopping them from changing the rules back later," Yglesias wrote last week.

Regardless of the process, the battle for filling the seat will be political theater at its best─or worst. The Kennedy family looms large, but it's unclear whether the political dynasty will seek to retain control of the seat, which was once also held by President John F. Kennedy. There are few contenders left within the family. Charismatic and a good speaker, Victoria Kennedy, Ted's politically savvy wife, would easily be the favorite to win if she does run. But she recently signaled her disinterest in the seat, and with an election coming just a few months after her husband's death, opponents could portray her as opportunistic. That leaves Kennedy's nephew Joseph P. Kennedy II as the only real possibility for the legacy seat. A former congressman, Joseph Kennedy has proven success as a campaigner, but like most Kennedys he has personal baggage, including a controversial marriage annulment. 

Of the many non-Kennedy names swirling around, Rep. Ed Markey is high on most lists. He raised his profile this year with the remarkable passage of the Waxman-Markey climate-change bill. Of all the current House members, Markey has the most money in the bank─almost $3 million, which puts him in good stead for what is likely to be an expensive race. Attorney General Martha Coakley is another local favorite, particularly with white-collar liberals, and will likely be the only woman in the race. But her fundraising so far has been lackluster. That could easily change, though, when she launches an official campaign. Former steelworker Steve Lynch, who represents Massachusetts' Ninth District, is popular with labor unions, but his pro-life stance costs him among the state's powerful progressive bloc. Congressman Michael Capuano, who represents the diverse urban district of Somerville (a seat once held by John Kennedy and Tip O'Neill), will also likely throw his hat in the ring. A lifelong, straight-talking local, he does well with blue-collar voters, and his attention to the crisis in Darfur earns him points with liberals. 

Markey, Capuano and Lynch will likely be joined in the race by a few of their Congressional colleagues. "Massachusetts Congressmen will to pile into the race like clowns into a tiny car - they have nothing to lose. This will be a special election, so they can lose the Senate race and still run for reelection in the House," says Alex Cole of Hattaway Communications, a Boston-based public affairs firm.  "But those Congressmen will have trouble differentiating themselves on national issues and they've never run statewide - while Martha Coakley can run on a record of delivering for the people of Massachusetts on the state level. She has a reputation for being fair and standing up for labor rights, civil rights and cracking down on predatory lenders."  

Former congressman Marty Meehan is a formidable fundraiser and was rumored as a possible successor to John Kerry in 2004. He has since left politics, and now serves as the chancellor of the University of Massachusetts Lowell. Meehan's past statements may haunt him in this race, though. He was a strong advocate of term limits, and in his first campaign for the House, he promised to serve only four terms. He well exceeded that, serving for more than six. Meehan has almost $5 million in his campaign account, but has remained mum on his intentions.

The dark horse in the race is House Financial Services Committee chairman Barney Frank. Long a darling of the left, Frank's recent combative exchange with a voter claiming President Obama was a Nazi was a YouTube sensation, solidifying his place as a liberal poster child. Frank, who has admitted to eyeing Kerry's seat in 2004, had been silent on the issue for weeks out of respect for Kennedy. But this morning he told NEWSWEEK he won't run, citing the importance of his financial services chairmanship as the pivotal factor. "I have no interest whatever so ever. If I had sort of an ego to say, 'I'm going to leave the job I have now when it is most critical and run a campaign for five months,' then I don't think anybody should vote for me. I wouldn't vote for me," Frank said. "I would have run for Senate in 2004, if John Kerry had become President. But that's the difference in being in the majority and minority in the House. Now, the ability I have to influence public policy is much bigger than it would be as a freshman Senator." That may be so, but it won't stop grassroots progressives from lobbying him to run.