Reid's Public Option: Not Exactly a Shoo-In

It wasn't long ago when pundits were calling the time of death on the public option. But today, in a move that seemed almost inconceivable back in August, Harry Reid has announced that the bill he plans to take to the Senate floor will contain a public option. His version will be an "opt-out" public plan, which would allow states to prevent their residents from participating in it. It's not a version that entirely satisfies progressives, who'd be happier with a robust, openly accessible plan. But it's a far cry from Max Baucus's plan, which relied on co-ops rather than a public plan to induce the competition President Obama so desires.

It's unclear why Reid decided on this model over an opt-in plan or a trigger, for example. It probably has something to do with pressure from the likes of Chuck Schumer, and assurances from folks like Jay Rockefeller that liberals would support him. Reid also said at his press conference this afternoon that he has the backing of the White House, quashing rumors (for now) that the administration prefers a trigger option. But there are a few key people who don't appear to support the idea. First and foremost, Olympia Snowe, who's had almost unparalleled influence on the Senate bill so far. Without her, Reid needs every single one of his 60 votes, and it's far from certain that Blanche Lincoln or Ben Nelson would support it.

With that in mind, it's possible that today's announcement is a negotiating strategy. He may just be anchoring high as a ploy: if it looks like he doesn't have the numbers to get cloture on a bill that includes the opt-out public option, he could shift to a trigger model, for example. That's a more palatable shift for liberals than starting from a trigger and moving to no public option at all, and it signals to moderates that he's serious about having some form of public plan in the final bill. 

There was always going to be a vote on some form of public option in the Senate if for no other reason than to allow liberal senators to tell their constituents they honestly tried to get it passed. In putting forth a public plan in his leadership bill rather than waiting for it to be offered as an amendment, Reid has made its passage, in some form, much more likely. He's put the onus on Republicans and a few moderate Dems to strip the public option out of the bill, rather than on liberals to scrape up the votes to add it in. If moderates don't like the public option Reid is offering, then they'll probably have to vote against the bill in its entirety, not just an amendment. That's a hard task. So, the bottom line is that this is a win for progressives. Even if they're not all smiles today, not having gotten exactly what they wanted, the public option has a realistic lifeline, and that's more than we could say just two months ago.