Gavin Newsom Calls it Quits, Succumbing to California Political Realities

Earlier this month we took a close look at the structural support of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom’s run for governor of California next year—a race with heavy implications for the future of the downtrodden state. What we found was that Newsom was severely close to running out of gas, having called in Bill (The Closer) Clinton before the race even got going. So Newsom’s announcement late Friday evening that he would be calling it quits was less than shocking, yet it still contained an element of surprise owing to the rather abrupt stunting of a career once considered on a steep upward path.

Timed strategically with the Friday-evening news lull, Newsom blamed the decision on the clichéd reason for most political resignations. “With a young family and responsibilities at city hall, I have found it impossible to commit the time required to complete this effort the way it needs to—and should—be done,” he said in a statement. He also said the decision was best for the residents of San Francisco and, further down the list, California Democrats.

Burying his “for the good of the party” rationale under the “spend more time with my family” reasoning might save him face, but it’s easy to read between the lines. In the end, Newsom may have been able to squeak out a primary win—and it’s a big maybe, which, of course, we’ll never know—but he would have had no chance in the general election.

The numbers that prove it aren’t his low fundraising stats, which by themselves were telling indicators. Instead, they were Newsom’s approval ratings. In San Francisco, bolstered by like minds, he’s always been widely popular, even winning reelection in 2007 after a sex scandal broke just months before the voting. His approval statewide is much lower, but the more revealing number is that more than a third of the state dislikes him, which is a pretty big chunk to rule out before you even start campaigning for undecided voters. The reason for their aversion is crystal-clear. Put simply, Newsom’s a liberal guy. He sits at the helm of one of America’s most progressive cities, and when it has come to controversial issues like gay marriage and government spending, Newsom hasn’t tried to play the centrist card. All Californians have ingrained in their mind a speech Newsom gave after the state Surpreme Court struck down thousands of marriages that had been performed for same-sex couples. Gay marriage is coming to California “whether you like it or not,” he said to a cheering crowd of supporters—not exactly the moderate, bipartisan route that usually gets people elected.

That Newsom was compelled to drop out of the race illuminates the makeup of California, a state far less blue than its presidential electors would indicate. Anyone who’s driven through the state’s Central Valley, which is heavy with farmland and small rural communities, can tell you that in those necks of the woods, Newsom's taunting translated into fighting words. Most pols could reasonably overcome the tide of just one issue, but Newsom’s problem was compounded by conservative frustration in the state with substantial budget problems—furloughs have affected almost all state employees—and no real solution for how to fix them. The fact that current Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is a Republican hasn't mattered all that much. Opponents point to the consistently left-leaning Senate and Assembly in the state. Not to mention, a growing number would likely claim, national policies enacted by President Obama.

It’d be easy at this point for a conservative Republican candidate to step in and denounce everything Newsom stood for. There already are a few: former eBay CEO Meg Whitman and former congressman Tom Campbell have declared their candidacies. But the person with the most to gain from Newsom’s withdrawal is would-be challenger Jerry Brown, who in recent months had outraised the mayor seven-to-one. What’s more, he's also riding high in the polls even before he has even formally entered the race. (His campaign tells NEWSWEEK he won’t be making an announcement until 2010, almost certainly to take advantage of higher fundraising limits in “exploratory” status.) But his most valuable weapon is that he was already the state’s governor in the '70s and '80s. He’d benefit from voters thinking he can return the state to its political and fiscal good old days, whether or not he actually can.

In the wake of Newsom’s statement, Brown also showed that he can be a savvy politician. Having restrained himself from attacking his opponent during the early fundraising race—for legal as well as strategic reasons—Brown released a polite yet stinging statement Friday evening. "Mayor Newsom is a talented public official and I believe he has a bright future. I am sure this was not an easy decision.” Translation? “Checkmate.”