Our Non-Wonky Guide to Merging the Senate and House Health Bills

After another early-morning vote today, the Senate edged closer to passing it’s hard-fought health-care package. At this point, calculus doesn’t matter anymore. Barring a late-in-the-game surprise from an attention-seeking member of the Democratic caucus, the bill is on schedule to pass by Christmas. But excitement among progressives will be short lived. Early next month, leaders from both houses will convene a conference committee for the tedious task of merging the Senate bill with the reform package the House passed last month. The problem is, the proposals look mighty different. Where might the bargaining lines be drawn? We offer our simplified, not-for-wonks comparison of the two proposals:

It’s worth pointing out that negotiating, in this case, won’t be as simple as splitting the difference and calling it a day. Leaders from both houses will be at the table, but the upper house certainly has the upper hand. After conference, the agreed-upon bill will return for final votes in each house. But in the Senate, Republicans are expected to attempt another filibuster to stall or kill the bill. Harry Reid will argue that he can’t afford to lose any of his 60 votes, lest the entire measure die. That means no resurgence of the public option (which is in the House bill) or redux of the Medicare buy-in. But House leaders will also be challenged not to cave too much to the Senate’s more watered-down version, or House progressives may jump ship and chip away at Speaker Pelosi’s already-slim majority. Despite months of going back and forth, the real bargaining has yet to begin.