Obama Approval vs. Disapproval Hits Even Split

Six of one, a half dozen of the other might be the best way to sum up the president’s latest shift in popularity. For the first time in his administration, those who see Obama’s first year as a success versus failure are split evenly at 45 to 45 percent, according to a new Quinnipiac poll released today.

“It’s a passing grade, not exactly the marks his mother would want to put on the refrigerator, but still a passing grade,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of Quinnipiac University's Polling Institute, who spoke to reporters this morning at an event hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

The shift continues a slow downward slide of Obama’s approval, which hit a high of 60 percent last summer. Such a slide is not entirely unusual after presidents leave what many call the “honeymoon” phase with voters and the public. But hovering in the 40s is also not worthy of derision. Most presidents one year on the job find themselves in similar territory, or even lower. After Ronald Reagan’s first year, the conservative leader’s approval was in the high 30s. From there, it rose gradually throughout his administration.

Deflated approval, especially when it dips below 50 percent, may seem to offer Republicans an outlet to claim that a majority of the country no longer agrees with the leader they elected. But the alternative is also unclear. Only 35 percent of those surveyed think the country would be better off if John McCain had won the 2008 election.

Worse off, according to the Quinnipiac numbers, is Congress. Only 32 percent believe the Republicans and the Democrats individually are handling their jobs well, compared with almost 60 percent disapproving, a figure that has risen over the past two months.

Can any of the numbers be turned around? For Obama, the only way to reverse his slide is to change perceptions, said Brown. It doesn’t matter if employment stays in the double digits, or if consumer spending remains sluggish; people just need their personal situation to improve in order to feel better. “People will just have to think the economy isn’t falling apart anymore,” he said.