Poll Suggests GOPers Are Edging Toward the Extreme

The results of a new poll of Republican views posted on Daily Kos today are creating quite a stir. As they should—the results are astonishing. The poll found that 63 percent of Republicans think President Obama is a socialist; 36 percent don't think Obama was born in the United States; 31 percent think that he is a racist who hates white people (yikes!); and 39 percent think he should be impeached, among other things. (They also have worrying views on sex education, gays, and contraception.) Taken without question, it's a pretty damaging portrait of the prevailing views in the GOP. They look misinformed, narrow-minded, and extreme. But before we get too carried away, I've got some worries about the accuracy of the poll.

I'll no doubt get attacked from the left for raising questions about a poll that appears to confirm the anecdotal evidence that Republicans have embraced the views of their fringe elements. So let me say this: I think the poll does point out worrying beliefs (and a few outright lies) that some GOPers have bought into and are seeping their way into mainstream conservative thought. Kos is right to point out that this atmosphere makes it incredibly difficult for Republicans to work with Democrats. Any time they edge any closer to Democrats, they're met with primary challenges and vociferous attacks from the people that trade in these kinds of lies about the President. I also think it's important for the left to be outraged by such misinformation about the President. But I'm wary of using this poll as incontrovertible evidence of the mood of the GOP. It's an indicator, not gospel.

So here goes. First the poll appears to be of all adults, not registered voters, which is the usual standard for political polls. Of those polled, 83 percent say they are likely to vote in 2010, which is a remarkably high—and odd—number. One political pollster I contacted said that even when calling only registered voters (not all adults) it's rare to break the 60 percent mark when asking about likelihood of voting.  It's worth noting that those who completed the poll are also a self-selecting group. It's pretty commonplace in phone polls for respondents to simply hang up when asked loopy questions, and many of these questions qualify as loaded. As this poll progressed and questions like "do you think your state should secede from the union" came up, I'm willing to bet that the more rational Republicans just hung up, leaving the poll to be completed by those more divorced from reality. Also keep in mind that the pool here—self-identified Republicans—is only around a third of the electorate, and 30 percent of a third is not a big number. Another point to note: 37 percent of respondents were over 60, compared with just 9 percent who were under 30. While most pollsters have trouble getting youngsters on the phone, that's a pretty big split. It's no secret that older voters are a lot more conservative on most of these issues, and aren't big fans of the president and their views may be overstated here.

I'm also struck by the high number of "not sures" in a lot of these answers. Sometimes when people are asked kooky poll questions like "Should the president be impeached?" they assume that the question must be anchored in reality, that the issue is being discussed in the news. Having missed the news (because it didn't exist), they opt for "not sure" perhaps to avoid follow-up questions that could make them look stupid or because they don't want to commit to an answer until they've figured out what is going on. There's also likely a decent number of people who can't stand the president and don't want to show support for him by saying "No, I don't think he should be impeached," but aren't convinced he has done anything worthy of impeachment (which he of course he hasn't—no crimes, no misdemeanors). For them, "not sure" is an appealing option. I presume the same thing could be said for Democrats who, if asked several years ago should Bush be impeached may have liked the idea, but were unsure if the evidence was there. (Although I did find a survey from 2007 where 69 percent of Democrats thought Bush should be impeached, but it's hard comparison to make seeing Bush had actually misled the public about the Iraq War, conducted warrantless wiretapping, and other such things, whereas Obama, well, people just don't like his economic philosophy.) 

The poll is certainly interesting—and worrying—but take it with a grain of salt.