News Alert: Dems Vying for Florida Senate Seat, Too

With all the fixation on the Republican primary contest for Florida's open Senate seat, it's easy to forget that there are actually Democrats running, too. U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, the frontrunner, has been struggling mightily to break into the news cycle. One recent gambit involved his sponsoring a stock car in a NASCAR race in Daytona Beach, but that earned him only a smattering of local coverage. Today, though, The New York Times's Damien Cave came out with a piece that finally offers him some national exposure, yet makes clear the uphill battle Meek faces. "Kendrick's got it right—let [the Republicans] fight it out," a hopeful Buddy MacKay, a former Democratic lieutenant governor, told Cave. "You don't want your campaign peaking too early." The question, however, is whether Meek will ever peak.

A recent Rasmussen poll showed the Democrat trailing both Republicans—Gov. Charlie Crist and former Florida House speaker Marco Rubio—by double digits. Meek has a number of disadvantages. He's little known outside South Florida. He's regarded by many as lacking gravitas. And he's been eclipsed by a high-profile GOP contest that's rapidly resembling a steel-cage match. But he has advantages, too. He has raised nearly $5 million so far (more than Rubio, but less than Crist). He faces weak competition in the Democratic primary (former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre has barely raised any money). And the fracas on the opposing side may work to his benefit.

Given Florida's late primary date (Aug. 24), Crist and Rubio will continue clawing each other for another six months. The victor is likely to emerge battered and bruised—and, for reasons unique to each, potentially unpalatable to the general electorate.

Let's start with Crist. He's been losing popularity among Florida voters for months now, given the state's dismal economy and the rising anti-incumbent mood. He made matters worse for himself through a number of missteps last year, including his dubious claim that he didn't endorse President Obama's stimulus package, even though he repeatedly touted it. Faced with a forceful challenge from the right, Crist is trying to out-conservative Rubio. It's an awkward posture for a guy known for his genial centrism and genuine bipartisanship—an approach that garnered him high approval ratings for much of his tenure. If he continues down this path—and every indication is that he will—he'll likely tarnish that moderate image, which has always appealed to average voters, and come across as a chameleon who morphs as the political backdrop changes.

Then there's Rubio. Whether out of conviction or out of a zealous pursuit of conservative votes, he has taken stances that are way out of the mainstream. He supports replacing income taxes with a national sales tax. He challenges the scientific evidence that global warming is caused by humans. He briefly argued that the Census should count only U.S. citizens, before backtracking somewhat to call for counting only legal residents. He made light of waterboarding in his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference. In an interview with The Miami Herald, he declined to opine on Obama's American citizenship. All this opens the way to painting him as an extremist.

With little more than two months between the primary and the general election, there won't be much time for Rubio or Crist to tack back to the middle and woo moderates and independents. That could provide Meek an opening. But he'll need a strong campaign apparatus to take advantage of it. And he'll have to keep fighting to steal a little of the limelight from his Republican opponents.