Why Immigration Reform Crept Back Into the News This Week

Yesterday, Sens. Chuck Schumer and Lindsey Graham presented a blueprint for a potential immigration-reform package. It was one of several instances this week in which members of Congress or of the Obama administration raised the profile of this supremely divisive issue—just as the push for health-care reform reaches its climax. As my fellow Gaggler Katie noted last week, the timing is more than a little odd. So what gives?

I think one key reason is to appease immigrant advocates and members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. As immigration reform has repeatedly been put off, the advocates have become restive, and some are downright furious. Notably, several immigrant-rights groups recently ditched the diplomatic language they've usually used to discuss the administration's handling of the issue and let their frustrations spew forth. "Our community is angry. Our members feel betrayed," the head of the League of United Latin American Citizens told The Washington Post. With tens of thousands of pro-immigrant demonstrators expected to descend on the National Mall this Sunday to call for comprehensive reform, there was a chance the rally could turn into a tirade against the administration. By getting out in front with a series of orchestrated events to show progress on the issue, the administration, I believe, was trying to defuse things.

There were other potential explanations, too. As Katie pointed out, Democrats are hoping to energize Latino voters for the midterm elections and drive a wedge into the Republican side—one that pits pro-reform forces, who are intent on winning back Hispanic votes, against the nativist, deport-them-all types. You could see Obama trying to draw out Republicans on the issue earlier this week. In a meeting with Schumer and Graham, he made clear that he needed substantial GOP backing to move immigration legislation forward. How Republicans respond remains to be seen. Do some break off to work on a bipartisan compromise? Do opponents shriek so loudly, and offensively, that they further damage the party's already dismal standing among Latinos? 

Obama, for his part, remains highly popular among Hispanics. According to a survey by polling firm Bendixen & Amandi that was released today, Latino voters still support Obama, despite criticizing his handling of immigration. Half of respondents said he'd done a "mediocre" or "bad" job on immigration issues, but 71 percent trusted him to "do the right thing" on such matters (compared to only 24 percent who trusted GOP members of Congress to do so). Moreover, 65 percent considered Obama's job performance overall as "excellent" or "good." So for now, at least, it appears Hispanics are cutting him some slack. Perhaps Obama can continue to demonstrate his commitment to the issue with symbolic gestures and leave the actual legislative push for next year. 

I noted in a Gaggle item after Obama's State of the Union address that the prospects were extremely slim for immigration reform to be tackled this year. I think that's still the case; the legislative calendar is simply too crowded. We're in March and Congress is still trying to pass health-care reform. The administration has made clear that numerous other measures are in line before immigration: financial reform, campaign finance, maybe even energy. That leaves very little time before the campaign season moves into high gear—at which point there's no way Democrats would introduce an issue as contentious as immigration.

When the time is right, though, the Schumer and Graham package offers a realistic starting point. Many of the elements are familiar: enhanced border and interior enforcement, a guest-worker program, and a path to legalization for the 11 million or so undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S. But a few provisions are new, or at least didn't feature prominently last time Congress debated the issue. The senators are proposing biometric Social Security cards to prevent employers from hiring illegal workers. And they're championing a provision that would award green cards to immigrants who receive advanced degrees in key fields from American universities. Both of those measures could help secure votes. But make no mistake: this will be a bruising battle, one that's sure to inflame passions on all sides.