How Senate Reconciliation Will Work (Answer: Not Well for GOP)

Now that President Obama and his 20 pens have signed the health-care-reform bill, the debate now officially begins in the Senate over the 153-page list of fixes. This time around, the process will be shortened. Reconciliation requires only 51 votes (or even 50, in which case Joe Biden would break the tie), and debate is limited to only a few hours before votes are called. Senate aides tell me that floor discussion is scheduled to begin on Thursday, with a marathon series of votes coming—yes, again—over the weekend.

Talking Points Memo has a great write-up on how the votes will proceed, one after another, with only a few minutes to discuss what each amendment actually does. Majority Leader Harry Reid has said he has a letter signed by 52 Democrats who have agreed to approve the House reconciliation fixes. If Democrats (or at least a majority of Democrats) stay united, they can pass them, and strike down the many amendments Republicans have vowed to file in the process. As long as the fixes pass without any changes, the measure won’t need to return to the House for another long, laborious vote.

The unknown factor is the number of amendments. Republicans can bring up as many as they want—and they have warned they’ll bring up hundreds—but if it becomes clear that they’re being purely dilatory, Biden, the Senate president, can overrule amendments and move to a vote.

That’s not good news for Republicans, but it gets worse. The GOP has spent a year plotting how to delay the bill, or even kill it. Under the reconciliation process, they won’t be able to lie on the train tracks indefinitely. But the Senate GOP also gives new meaning to the cliché of being stuck between a rock and a hard place. Now that a reform package has been signed, there’s no longer a bill to oppose, only a list of fixes to vote for or against. Thus the quandary: if Republicans vote no on the reconciliation fixes, they’re actually voting to support the House bill that passed on Sunday, which is actually the same bill that passed the Senate in December, which they all voted against. They'd also be voting to keep in all the distasteful components like the Cornhusker Kickback and the Louisiana Purchase.

But! They also don’t want to be caught voting yes on anything Democrats support, even though approving the fixes that amend the House’s slightly more liberal bill would be more in line with the GOP's policy principles. The only foolproof option left? Fight like hell during the debate, and when the consequential votes are called, be too busy to show up.