Congressional Dems Say No Immigration Bill Any Time Soon
It only takes a few minutes for the convention wisdom to congeal here in Washington. And that was true last weekend after Arizona passed its tough (some would say draconian) immigration law.
The CW materialized with a boost from conservatives such as Rush Limbaugh and progressives in and close to the Latino community. It was this: that the Democratic-controlled Congress would use the Arizona opening to undercut Republicans with Hispanic voters by promptly crafting an immigration bill and bringing it to the floor.
Um, no. I was just told by an authoritative source in the Democratic Senate leadership that there is no way they will move to an immigration bill before July—and it's unlikely even then. They may not get to it at all before they adjourn (around Oct. 1) for the midterm elections, and could consider it after the election in a lame-duck session.
Or not.
The House, also controlled by the Democrats, has historically been far less eager to deal with the immigration issue. I was just told by an authoritative House source that they will not take up the bill unless and until the Senate passes onewhich, in the House, they take to mean not this year at all.
Query: will what is almost certain to be a more Republican Congress next year want to take up immigration then?
So what this means is twofold: that immigration is both the most tantalizing and the most dangerous demographic political issue on the American horizon. There now are 45 million Hispanics in America, 10 million to 11 million of whom have no legal permission to be here. The Hispanic vote is rising in importance, but there is still 9 percent unemployment (12 percent among Latinos) and citizen-workers feel under siege.
Which in turn means that President Obama will try to extract whatever political mileage he can out of the Arizona law by decrying it rhetorically and perhaps by encouraging his Justice Department to file a lawsuit against it, or encourage a suit.
But while he and his party denounce the Republicans of Arizona, they are in no hurry to consider a sweeping reform law that they know could blow up in their faces.
In the short run, the Dems could gain this year in a few Southwestern House and Senate races by stoking anti-Arizona anger. Even Republicans concede that, in the long term, the GOP cannot afford to risk being seen as anti-Latino.
But that doesn't mean the Democrats will have the cojones to take this on now. For one thing, there are way too many shaky Democrats in red districts or states—the 48 of them who represent districts John McCain won chief among them.
Having voted for the stimulus bill, and the auto bailouts, and perhaps the health-care bill, those vulnerable Democrats would be itching to vote against an immigration bill that offered a "route to citizenship" for millions of undocumented workers because they would be signing their political death warrant if they voted yes.
There are other factors. White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel was famous, when he was in the House, for warning Dems away from the immigration issue. And there is neither a bill being drafted in the White House nor a honcho designated to do so—let alone push it through the Senate.
At this point, it's a lot of Arizona hot air.
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Howard Fineman is Newsweek's Senior Washington Correspondent and Columnist, senior editor and deputy Washington bureau chief. He is the author of "Living Politics," a column that began on MSNBC.COM and Newsweek.com and that now also appears in the print magazine. An award-winning reporter and writer, Fineman also is an analyst for NBC News and MSNBC, appearing regularly on "Countdown with Keith Olbermann," "Hardball with Chris Matthews" and "TODAY." The author of scores of Newsweek cover stories, Fineman's work has appeared as well in The New York Times, The Washington Post and The New Republic. His 2008 national best-selling book, "The Thirteen American Arguments," was released in paperback by Random House in the spring of 2009.
One of the nation's leading political reporters, Fineman has interviewed every major presidential candidate from (then-vice president) George H.W. Bush in 1985 to (then senator) Barack Obama early and often in the 2008 campaign cycle. His current work focuses on the Obama Administration and its top officials, as well as on Congress and politics throughout the country. Although based in Washington, Fineman travels widely in the U.S. and has covered politics and other events in 49 of the 50 states.
Fineman's work has produced many milestones and awards. A cover story in November 2001 featured President George W. Bush's first extensive interview after 9/11. Another cover, "Bush and God," was part of a series of articles that won the 2003 National Magazine Award for General Excellence. His reporting has helped Newsweek win many honors from the Magazine Publishers Association and the American Journalism Review. Other awards include a "Page One" from the Headliners Club of New York, a "Silver Gavel" from the American Bar Association and a "Deadline Club" from the Society of Professional Journalists (SPJ). In 2006 he received the Alumni Award from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism.
As a reporter and writer, Fineman ranges widely. Besides campaign-year covers, other projects have included: race and politics, the impact of digital technology on society, the influence of Hollywood on politics, the rise of the religious right and of conservative talk radio. He has interviewed business leaders such as George Soros, Bill Gates, Steve Case and Robert Rubin and entertainment figures such as Warren Beatty, Jane Fonda and Jay Leno.
Although now under exclusive television contract to NBC, Fineman over the years has appeared on major public affairs shows, such as Nightline, Face the Nation, Fox News Sunday, Larry King Live, Charlie Rose and the NewsHour. He was a regular panelist on Washington Week in Review on PBS (1983-95) and on CNN's Capital Gang Sunday (1995-98). He worked with Ted Koppel on Nightline specials, and has been a guest on Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The Colbert Report."
A native of Pittsburgh, Fineman began his career at The Courier-Journal in Louisville, covering the environment, the coal industry and state politics before joining the newspaper's Washington bureau in 1978. He moved to Newsweek in 1980, was named chief political correspondent in 1984, deputy Washington bureau chief in 1993, senior editor in 1995 and senior Washington correspondent and columnist in 2008.
Fineman holds an A.B., Phi Beta Kappa, from Colgate, an M.S. in journalism from Columbia and a J.D. from the Brandeis School of Law at the University of Louisville. His legal education included a year as a visiting student at the Georgetown University Law Center. He received Watson and Pultizer Traveling Fellowships for study in Europe, Russia and the Middle East, and has traveled to more than 40 countries, among them China, Vietnam, Japan, Ukraine, Israel, Turkey and the West Bank Palestinian Territories.
Fineman is married to Amy L. Nathan, a senior counsel at the Federal Communications Commission. They live in Washington with their two children, Meredith and Nicholas.
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