Oil-Spill Answers: When and Where Will the Oil Slick Come Ashore?

Even as crews work around the clock to contain the oil slick creeping toward the coast, speculation abounds as to when and where it will finally wash ashore.

Referring to recent projections, BP's chief operating officer Doug Suttles told reporters yesterday that landfall wasn't expected for another three days. If he's right, the slick will reach the coast sometime on Friday. But where? There are predictions aplenty—including daily forecast maps being released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration—but changing weather patterns make it all but impossible to accurately calculate where the oil will end up, and new theories are being introduced every day.

What we do know is this: measuring in at 130 miles by 70 miles in size, the slick threatens the entire Gulf Coast, and four of the states that share it—Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida—have declared states of emergency. Many in Louisiana, the state whose shores are most threatened, had hoped the oil sheen would stay east of the Mississippi River so as not to impede the seafood harvest. But today Gov. Bobby Jindal announced that the slick could impact the coastline west of the Mississippi as well. Jindal said:

NOAA's projections this morning, for the first time, show the possibility of the oil going to the west of the Mississippi River. We talked last night ... about how important it is to get ready in case that oil does get west of the river. Obviously, that would pose even greater challenges in protecting our coast.

The Louisiana press is already reporting that heavy oil has been spotted only a few miles from shore.

As far as other theories go, The New York Times drew attention today to a strong but volatile underwater current in the Gulf of Mexico that looks as if it might be moving north toward Louisiana. Scientists quoted in the article say it's entirely possible that the current will reach the oil slick, setting into motion a nightmarish worst-case scenario:

Should the current reach the spill, oil would begin to flow down past Florida's western coast, which would be largely spared due to its wide coastal shelf, and into the Florida Strait. There, the chemical dispersants used to break up the oil could turn on vulnerable wildlife ...

If the worst comes to pass, Florida's eastern shores would be particularly vulnerable ... The narrow shelf of the Florida Keys could cause the current to break apart, delivering oil and dispersants to the shore ...

Everglades researchers are already expressing fear that the oil could run into Florida Bay and potentially devastate its fisheries, sea grasses and shallows. More water evaporates from the bay than flows into it from the Everglades this time of year, creating a sink-like effect that leaves the delicate ecosystem at some risk of attracting oil flows, said James Fourqurean, a sea-grass ecologist at Florida International University.

The Times repeatedly emphasizes that this is far from a sure thing, and that such a development would be an unprecedented disaster. But then again, so was the BP oil spill.

Of course, all the theories and predictions being tossed into the public dialogue may be moot: 5,000 barrels of oil are still leaking into the ocean every day, and as the slick grows in size, there's no telling how extensive the damage could become.