Stephen Roach on 'The Next Asia'
When Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach talks, people listen: his opinions on the global economy have been known to shape policy from Beijing to Washington. For years, as the bank's chief economist, he was one of the Cassandras of the global economy, warning boom-day investors to be wary of the imbalances that eventually led to the financial crisis. Now, as its top executive in Asia, he's got a new book, The Next Asia, out this month. The warning this time: while Asia is rising, the coming power shift from West to East won't be as easy as everyone thinks. "It's a myth that the baton of economic leadership is being seamlessly passed to the BRICs, in particular China. My premise is there is still a lot of work to be done," says Roach.
Indeed, The Next Asia lays out in forensic detail the breadth and depth of Asia's economic imbalances, as well as the dangers of the continent's huge dependence on Western consumers. In a series of essays and diarylike entries, he tracks the highs and lows of the global economy from 2006 to the postcrisis period of 2009, and the possibility that it may all lead to a future U.S.-Chinese trade war. The book is sprinkled with insider detail from VIP events like Davos and the National People's Congress in China, where in 2007 Roach sat next to senior Chinese officials "who gasped" when Premier Wen Jiabao pronounced that his country's economy was "unbalanced, unstable, uncoordinated, and unsustainable."
Despite something of a reputation for gloom, Roach ultimately comes across as an optimist, and a humanist. His long-term view on Asia remains bullish. And the book's dedication to those Asians still living on $2 a day—"the 1.8 billion who remain on the outside looking in"—is a reminder of just how high the stakes are.
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Rana Foroohar is the deputy editor in charge of international business and economics coverage for Newsweek. She conceives and edits a weekly section of breaking news stories, features and guest articles. She also writes economic cover stories and opinion pieces, and pens a bi-weekly column on the global economy.
Foroohar oversees Newsweek's team of global correspondents and stringers, directing their reporting on the week's business news. She edits regular columnists such as hedge fund manager Barton Biggs, Morgan Stanley emerging markets head Ruchir Sharma, Yale professor Jeffrey Garten and PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian. She is in charge of economic coverage for Newsweek's annual Davos special issue, which features pieces by world leaders and economic thinkers, and also chairs panel discussions while at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Prior to taking this New York based position in 2007, Foroohar spent six years as Newsweek's European Economic Correspondent based in London, covering Europe and the Middle East. During this time, she was awarded the German Marshall Fund's Peter R. Weitz Prize for transatlantic reporting. She has also worked as a general editor at Newsweek, a reporter for Forbes magazine, and as a writer and editor at various other national and international publications. Foroohar graduated in 1992 from Barnard College, Columbia University, with a B.A. in English literature. She is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
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