Mexico Issues Travel Warning on U.S.

Last week, after the state of Arizona passed one of the toughest immigration measures in U.S. history, Mexican President Felipe Calderón issued a travel warning for Mexicans planning to visit the Southwestern state. It's rare that America is the recipient, and not the issuer, of a travel warning--notable exceptions include the E.U. discouraging citizens against visits there last fall due to swine flu fears, and Canada issuing a symbolic warning in 2002 to protest America's tough new antiterror laws. But Mexico's move is among the first times a developing country has exhorted its people to avoid the U.S.--and it's hardly an empty threat. If Mexicans follow Calderón's advisory, the economic impact on Arizona could be devastating.

Some 24 million Mexicans visit Arizona annually, contributing nearly $2.7 billion to the state's $18.5 billion tourist industry. On any given day, some 65,000 Mexicans cross the border to work, shop, visit, and inject $7.35 million into the state's economy. If Mexican citizens were to follow Calderón's warning in the roughly 90-day span before the law takes effect, Arizona could lose more than $500 million dollars in revenue.

The potential economic fallout from Mexico's travel advisory is one more marker of the fact that the U.S. desperately needs emerging-market business--and that developing countries know it. Getting slapped with an "instability" warning is the last thing the U.S. needs right now. But as more emerging markets turn sour on America's leadership potential and its politics, Mexico's warning may be just the first of many to come.