Oscar Oracle

The Oscar race is on! Will The King's Speech or The Social Network take home the prize? Can Annette beat out Natalie for Best Actress? Using data that track mass opinion, The Daily Beast surveys the Academy Award nominees.

BEST PICTURE

The Social Network -1.92%
The King's Speech 1.22%
Black Swan -0.26%
The Fighter -0.68%
Inception -0.30%
Toy Story 3 -0.35%
127 Hours 1.86%
True Grit 2.08%
The Kids Are All Right -0.91%
Winter's Bone 0.64%

Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: The Social Network is holding on for dear life to the top spot but The King's Speech, still riding a wave of momentum from its near-sweep at the BAFTA awards, as well as a meaty 60 Minutes segment on Sunday, has been seeing steady gains over the past four weeks, and could surpass the Facebook film in the coming days. That being said, The Social Network also has a few things going for it as well. It won the Eddie award for Best Editing, and the UK's The Guardian even picked the film to win Best Picture. Will The King's Speech stutter past the competition on Oscar night? Tune in and found out.

BEST ACTOR

Colin Firth, The King's Speech -0.84%
James Franco, 127 Hours -0.57%
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network -1.77%
Jeff Bridges, True Grit 1.88%
Javier Bardem, Biutiful 4.80%

Source: Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: Although Colin Firth's line-flubbing monarch King George VI seems to have this category on lockdown, James Franco's Oscar co-hosting gig really seems to be paying off for the 127 Hours star, who leapfrogs past The Social Network's Jesse Eisenberg for the No. 2 spot. ABC's Academy Awards promos featuring co-hosts Franco and Anne Hathaway have gone into overdrive, and, in a genius PR move, Franco even started a Twitter account this week where he's been posting a series of hints concerning his co-hosting shenanigans. Lastly, Javier Bardem experienced a sizable spike now that more people have seen his film, Biutiful, and the brooding actor's been added to the list of presenters for the ceremony.

Niko Tavernise / Fox Searchlight

BEST ACTRESS

Natalie Portman, Black Swan -0.06%
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right -0.34%
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone -0.31%
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole 0.35%
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine 0.54%

Source: Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: Although many are hinting Annette Bening could possibly upset Portman's ferociously dedicated ballerina on Oscar night—the ‘career Oscar' argument, if you will-—this really is Portman's to lose. Moreover, Black Swan broke $100 million at the domestic box office on Monday. As her ballet director Thomas Leroy tells Portman in the film, "The only person standing in your way is you."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Fighter -2.02%
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech -0.46%
Jeremy Renner, The Town -0.15%
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right 1.11%
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone 5.54%

Source: Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: He's been accused of overacting by our own writer, Tricia Romano, but The Fighter's resident crackhead, Christian Bale, remains the frontrunner for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar, despite his BAFTA loss to Geoffrey Rush. Meanwhile, thanks to his recent publicity blitz, John Hawkes, who delivered an electrifying performance as an Ozarks meth head in Winter's Bone, has seen a hefty increase in his Oscar odds.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Melissa Leo, The Fighter -0.96%
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech 0.32%
Amy Adams, The Fighter 0.24%
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit 1.75%
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom -1.08%

Source: Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: Still smarting from the "For Your Consideration" ads she personally took out in the Hollywood trade magazines, Melissa Leo is still the favorite to win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar. However, Helena Bonham Carter's cool, self-effacing attitude during the awards season has buoyed her chances, with the star recently crowned "Awards Season MVP" by New York Magazine. And True Grit's Plucky star Hailee Steinfeld has been steadily gaining on the competition, with several pundits—including Roger Ebert—believing the 14-year-old could pull an Oscar night upset.

BEST DIRECTOR

Black Swan, Darren Aronofsky 0.63%
The Social Network, David Fincher -1.97%
The King's Speech, Tom Hooper 2.12%
True Grit, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen -0.19%
The Fighter, David O. Russell -1.39%

Source: Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: While The King's Speech director Tom Hooper is still climbing up the ranks, Black Swan helmer Darren Aronofsky remains in the lead over The Social Network's Fincher and Hooper, despite the former being named ‘The Greatest Working Director' by Entertainment Weekly.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Toy Story 3 -0.40%
How to Train Your Dragon 0.65%
The Illusionist 0.00%

Source: Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: Let's be serious: this is a lock for Woody, Buzz and the rest of college-bound Andy's toys. To Oscar and Beyond!

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Exit Through the Gift Shop 0.24%
Inside Job -2.29%
Restrepo -3.07%
Gasland 5.64%
Waste Land 6.29%

Source: Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: All "will he or won't he?" drama surrounding mysterious graffiti artist Banksy's appearance at the Oscars has been dominating the news all week leading up to Sunday's telecast. Will he defy Academy President Tom Sherak and wear a monkey mask to the ceremony? Will Sherak let him? Who knows. Furthermore, new Banksy works seem to be popping up in Los Angeles by the day, adding to the intrigue. Meanwhile, the docs Waste Land and Gasland are courageously climbing up the ranks, but it's probably a case of too little too late.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Social Network 0.18%
Toy Story 3 -0.07%
True Grit -0.12%
127 Hours -0.09%
Winter's Bone 0.07%

Source: Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: The Social Network may be neck and neck with The King's Speech in the Best Picture race, but TV writer-god Aaron Sorkin, who has won every single award leading up to the Oscars, has this in the bag. And we can't wait for his widely reported self-effacing guest spot on an upcoming episode of NBC's 30 Rock.

Melissa Moseley SMPSP

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Inception -0.43%
The King's Speech 0.26%
The Fighter -0.53%
The Kids Are All Right -0.20%
Another Year 1.28%

Source: Wise Window

WHAT THIS MEANS: Despite his ongoing feud with celebrated author Christopher Hitchens, The King's Speech's David Seidler continues to inch his way up the ladder, no doubt buoyed by his recent appearance on CBS' 60 Minutes. However, thanks to what many critics believe was a brutal snub in the Best Director category, Inception writer Christopher Nolan remains in the lead.