Oscars Oracle 1/26

Could The Kings Speech best The Social Network? Will Natalie Portman continue her reign? Using data that track mass opinion, The Daily Beast surveys which actors, films, and directors are most-buzzed about this season. Plus, view our complete awards coverage.

BEST PICTURE

The Social Network -14.3%
Black Swan -2.1%
The King's Speech 5.0%
The Fighter 1.9%
Inception 1.4%
Toy Story 3 3.1%
127 Hours 6.7%
The Kids Are All Right 3.3%
True Grit 10.8%
Winter's Bone 2.4%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
Buzz for The Social Network dwindled this week, perhaps because it’s long been seen as the shoo-in and other nominees in the Best Picture categories are comparative surprises. Still, it remains in front of The King's Speech.

Source: WiseWindow

The Weinstein Company

BEST ACTOR

Colin Firth, The King's Speech -13.2%
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network -7.6%
James Franco, 127 Hours -2.8%
Jeff Bridges, True Grit 15.4%
Javier Bardem, Biutiful 63.6%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
Javier Bardem surged this week because he was relatively less talked-about than his fellow nominees prior to the nominations. But his chances of actually winning in this category still look slim – and Colin Firth looks like even more of a lock than ever before.

Source: WiseWindow

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Fighter -16.4%
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech -5.9%
Jeremy Renner, The Town 0.1%
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right 22.1%
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone 44.2%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
Though Golden Globe-winner Christian Bale is still out in front for his performance in The Fighter, he’s got some competition from Geoffrey Rush and Jeremy Renner. Some of Bale’s drop this week, however, is simply due to the surprise inclusion of John Hawkes from Winter's Bone.

Source: WiseWindow

BEST ACTRESS

Natalie Portman, Black Swan -5.4%
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right -2.3%
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone 1.3%
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole 5.1%
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine 8.1%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
This race is Natalie’s to lose, even as Annette Bening continues to show signs of Oscar life. But after the announcements were revealed on Tuesday, the Internet was buzzing most about Michelle Williams, who received a nod for her performance as the embattled wife of Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine.

Source: WiseWindow

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Melissa Leo, The Fighter -12.2%
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech 7.4%
Amy Adams, The Fighter 2.9%
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom -3.2%
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit 10.4%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
Coming off her Golden Globe for The Fighter, Melissa Leo is the likely frontrunner. Still, in a year when great roles for women were in abundance, an upset isn’t out of the question, and the numbers reflect that.

Source: WiseWindow

BEST DIRECTOR

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan -3.9%
David Fincher, The Social Network 1.4%
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit -4.5%
David. O. Russell, The Fighter -1.6%
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech 14.6%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
It’s hard to say why our polling is putting Darren Aronofsky out in front of David Fincher. Still, buzz for the Black Swan director dropped this week, and we continue to believe that by the time the red carpet is put down on the ground, his Social Network competitor will be at the top of the heap.

Source: WiseWindow

Disney

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Toy Story 3 -2.3%
How to Train Your Dragon 3.4%
The Illusionist 0.5%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
A few points up or down don’t really mean anything. At this point it would take an act of God to stop Toy Story 3.

Source: WiseWindow

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Exit Through the Gift Shop -12.6%
Restrepo -14.5%
Inside Job -16.4%
Gasland 87.7%
Waste Land 86.5%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
Exit Through the Gift Shop dropped this week as unexpected nominees Gasland and Waste Land emerged from relative obscurity. How it will shake out in a month’s time, who knows. The documentary category is always quirky and hard to predict. (If it weren’t, Waiting for Superman and films about Joan Rivers and Pat Tillman likely would have made the cut.)

Source: WiseWindow

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Social Network -3.9%
Toy Story 3 -1.3%
True Grit 0.1%
127 Hours 6.0%
Winter's Bone 0.4%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
Regardless of any competition remaining in the Best Picture race, Aaron Sorkin seems to have this category locked up for his interpretation of how Facebook came to be. A few points up or down won’t change that.

Source: WiseWindow

Melissa Moseley SMPSP

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Inception
Inception -3.1%
The King's Speech -5.6%
The Fighter -5.0%
The Kids Are All Right 9.6%
Another Year 10.3%

WHAT THIS MEANS:
Inception is still polling well, but the failure of Christopher Nolan to land a Best Director nomination is pretty solid evidence that the Academy doesn’t love Inception so much as it thinks it ought to love Inception. So we’re not surprised it’s dropping some, or that The Kids Are All Right (which voters really do love), is climbing.

Source: WiseWindow