In Vegas, the House always wins. And Sheldon Adelson is about to clean up.
By the time the CNN debate begins airing on Tuesday, with Adelson sitting in one of the front rows, every GOP presidential candidate will have had a face-to-face meeting with the powerbroker.
The Republican megadonor is the center of a prolonged courting process, whereby presidential candidates come and pay homage to one of the titans of Sin City.
For Adelson, the entire debate is a win-win proposition. Free marketing for his casino, The Venetian? Check. Prime seats at the GOP debate? Check. An endless stream of powerful politicians personally coming by to confirm your influence and give you private briefs on their thinking? Check.
Adelson’s clout comes principally from the 2012, his first major foray into presidential campaign politics, when he almost single-handedly kept former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s candidacy alive with $20 million in contributions to his super PAC.
Chief among those vying for Adelson’s support are Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, although the billionaire has not made his mind up yet and is not imminently expected to announce his support.
Rubio has done a lot of outreach over the past several years, and recently has been checking in with Adelson every three weeks or so. This past spring, Politico reported that the Florida senator had met with Adelson a half-dozen times since entering the Senate in 2011.
Cruz is another contender who has also made a serious effort to get to know Adelson. And New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has also done a substantial amount of outreach.
“Right now he’s the hot chick at the dance,” said a source familiar with the Adelson courting process. “He’s developed a brand on this whole thing, and because of the Newt thing, he”s become one of the most courted donors in the world. I think he’s trying to protect that a little and not be haphazard about a decision.”
Adelson is said to be basing his decision on two or three issues. The casino magnate is less concerned about social issues, but he does care about national security and the security of Israel; being a strong fiscal conservative; and having a viable pathway to beating Hillary Clinton in the general election.
And it doesn’t hurt if the candidate opposes online gambling, seeing as the activity hurts casino owners like Adelson. Rubio, for example, has co-sponsored a bill in the Senate that would institute a ban on online gambling.
But the billionaire’s previous support for Gingrich shouldn’t be seen as a model. Adelson and Gingrich had a close personal relationship beyond anything Adelson has with any of the current candidates.
“He’s not going to be bullied into anything, and if you come in too strong it’s going to work against him,” said the source familiar with the courting process. “Get to know him personally, spend time with him, and reach out… no one is going to push him into this. Ultimately it’s going to be a joint decision between him and his wife.”
Adelson was meeting with “a few candidates” Monday and Tuesday, said a source familiar with the courting process, so that every candidate can have a fair shot at winning his support. The source declined to give the names of the candidates.
But when the cameras turn on Tuesday evening for the main Republican presidential debate, Adelson will have already had the most exclusive debate experience that money and access can buy.
“This is the Super Bowl for Sheldon—he thinks this is fascinating, he’s very much a student of politics,” said the source.