When the chips fell, gambling magnate Sheldon Adelson lost big.

3. “Economists’ Urgent Advice for Obama: Shrink Deficit, Cut Taxes and Avoid the ‘Fiscal Cliff,’ in The Washington Post.

A dozen top economic prognosticators tell Obama what they would do.

4. “Barack Obama’s Second-Term Cabinet,” at Politico.

4. “If Democrats Keep the Senate, Republicans Can Blame Themselves,” at Politico.
Who would have thought the Democrats might hold on to their Senate majority?

5. “Swilling the Planters With Bumbo: When Booze Bought Elections,” at Smithsonian.com.
There was a time the vox populi was considerably less dry on Election Day.

Extra: "What Would the Founding Fathers Think of Election Day 2012," in The Wall Street Journal.
Remember 250 years ago, when pollsters didn’t exist?

Send stories for the Independent Rundown to Matt DeLuca at matt.deluca@newsweekdailybeast.com. Follow him on Twitter: @DeLucaMattS.

At issue is a section of the provisional ballot where the voter fills in the official ID verifying their legitimacy. Husted has gone to court arguing that voters who do not fill out that section of the ballot—without assistance from polling officials—should have their ballot invalidated when the counting time comes. 

This seems to contradict sections of Ohio law and a previous court agreement, and so the measure is with the judges again, leaving local election administrators waiting for legal clarification that won't come until the votes are in. 

“It’s partisan politics, you know that,” said one local official with an experienced sigh.

A Montana judge drew back the curtain on a social welfare nonprofit called Western Tradition Partnership. Should Karl Rove be shaking in his boots?

3. “Independent and Centrist Voters Breaking With Precedent,” at CNN.

There’s a fascinating dynamic in the way the final polls are breaking, John Avlon writes at CNN: “Mitt Romney is narrowly winning independent voters while President Obama is winning centrist voters by a nearly 20-point margin.”

4. “It’s the Future vs. the Past,” at The Daily Beast.

The data are depressingly clear. According to the final Pew Poll, Obama is beating Romney by 28 points among voters under 30, while Romney is winning voters over age 65 by 10 points.

Romney is winning white men by a 21-point spread, with the president securing just 36 percent of their support. In turn, Obama is winning women under age 50 by a stunning 23 points.

And when diversity is taken into account, the gaps become even more stark. Romney is winning just 4 percent of black voters and only a quarter of Hispanics, on pace for the worst presidential performance with this fastest-growing demographic in America in modern political history.

In this sense, the 2012 election is the future versus the past, and it brings out barely slumbering tensions and resentments. Maybe that’s why the final CNN poll found that 37 percent of Romney supporters are primarily voting against Obama.

4. “Some Voters Are Spelling Out Their Indecision On Their Donation Checks,” in The New York Times.
Too bad for these guys that in presidential politics you can’t just buy one of each.

5. “The Road to 270,” in The Economist.
Wherein the magazine does a decent job of adding up all the swing-state chatter and sorting out who needs to win what.

Send stories for the Independent Rundown to Matt DeLuca at matt.deluca@newsweekdailybeast.com. Follow him on Twitter: @DeLucaMattS.

Same-Sex Marriage

Support for marriage equality is gaining traction across the nation, but it has famously been defeated in more than 30 ballot initiatives, raising questions about the ethics of putting civil rights to a popular vote. But polls show that streak might stop this cycle in Maine, where voters appear ready to recognize same-sex marriage despite defeating a similar proposal in 2009. Maryland, Washington, and Minnesota also have marriage-equality measures on the ballot. With a thin majority of Americans now supporting marriage equality—including President Obama—these ballot initiatives will be tests of whether we are at the tipping point.

Marijuana Legalization

Colorado is not just a pivotal swing state in the presidential campaign, it is ground zero for the most ambitious marijuana-legalization measure in the nation. Amendment 64 promises to regulate marijuana like liquor, producing new revenue for the cash-strapped state and dedicating the first $40 million to new school construction. The pitch is more sober-minded than a California pot-legalization pitch that was defeated in the Tea Party year of 2010. Polls have shown the measure could pass, thanks to majority support from every age group except those older than age 65, evidence of a striking generational divide on pot legalization. This initiative is an additional X factor in the state’s close presidential race. Will it boost youth turnout to President Obama’s advantage—or will that support go instead to Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and if so, whom will that hurt, Obama or Mitt Romney? Washington and Oregon are also considering similar measures, but Colorado seems the most likely to pass.

These days, everybody hates Congress. John Avlon on the eight U.S. Reps who deserve to get the boot on Tuesday.

3. “In Va., Kaine and Allen Seek Elusive Ticket-Splitters,” at Real Clear Politics.

In Virginia, Tim Kaine and George Allen are on the hunt for independents in their hard-fought race for the Senate.

4. “Christie Was Mitt’s First Choice for VP,” at Politico.

Steve King

Iowans are noted for their civility, intelligence, and common sense—which is why Steve King has been such a discordant congressional representative for the Hawkeye State. Whether it’s claiming that Joe McCarthy was an “American hero,” being the sole congressman to refuse to recognize the role of slaves in building the U.S. Capitol, defending Joe Wilson and dog-fighting, doubled down on claims that State Department aide Huma Abedin is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, voting against Katrina-relief funding, or—already!—speaking out against Hurricane Sandy-relief funding, Wilson is an affront to reason. Four years ago, he also predicted that if President Obama were elected president, "then al Qaeda, the radical Islamists, and their supporters, will be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on September 11^th because they will declare victory in this War on Terror.”  He’s running against Christie Vilsack (wife of former Iowa governor and current Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack) who is running as “a problem solver, not a partisan fighter.” And would be a far better addition to Congress.

Laura Richardson

Sometimes political goodbyes are said with pity and disgust rather than anger. That applies to Laura Richardson, who is just not very good at her job. She seems to have a hard time keeping her own life in order let alone looking out for the best interests of her constituents. She got a sweetheart deal on a house then failed to make payments or provide basic upkeep, provoking complaints from neighbors and taking an undisclosed loan from a strip-club owner. She raised just $7,000 in the last quarter and was reprimanded by the House Committee on Ethics for using congressional staff to try and infiltrate an opponent’s campaign and then obstructing the investigation, which she claimed was racially motivated. Her staffers have accused her of “attempts to intimidate them on a regular basis.” Richardson is running against a fellow Democrat, Janice Hahn, thanks to California’s top-two primary format. She should lose.

Certainly, Hurricane Sandy has given the president the opportunity to appear, well, presidential. It has highlighted his cool, pragmatic leadership style—so at odds with the overheated stereotype Republicans try to sell their supporters. 

Here was the president suspending his campaign to focus on keeping citizens safe, ordering government agencies to cut through all red tape, and working with a frequent Republican critic, Chris Christie—united in their determination to put politics aside to do the people’s business. It gave rise to an Internet image that rocketed its way through cyberspace because it captured much of the missing hope of this election—echoing the brief moment of national unity after 9/11—and imagining what could occur after Nov. 6 if we return to our senses.

Here in Ohio, there are some tangible signs of the underlying shift. Make no mistake, this election is still very close, but President Obama has maintained a small but steady lead in the polls here. We are deep in the partisan spin cycle that pretends each party has momentum no matter what the polls say—they will latch on to any outlier or cite secret polls or openly muse about a hoped-for Bradley Effect. Logic and perspective left the building a long time ago.

But here’s what we know, at least here in Ohio. Roughly one quarter of the Buckeye State electorate had voted early as of five days ago, according to the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll—and of that significant segment, President Obama was beating Mitt Romney by 60 percent to 34 percent—or a 26-point spread. It’s tough to spin this into good news for the Romney campaign.

3. “Chrysler Exec Tweets That Donald Trump is ‘Full of (Expletive)’ Over Jeep Accusation,” in The Detroit Free Press

Donald Trump took a black eye from a Chrysler executive on Thursday who said the relentless self-promoter was fibbing through his teeth when he repeated a Romney campaign ad claim that Chrysler was planning to outsource its Jeep production to China.

4. “Could Presidential Polls Be Wrong About Obama’s Battleground Edge?” at The Huffington Post.

With just five days left in the 2012 campaign, can battleground polls give us an accurate read on which way voters are leaning?

Early voting began here on Oct. 2nd, and it remains a core part of the president’s re-election strategy, especially after Republican efforts to restrict early voting periods were rejected by the courts.

According to a new CBS/New York Times poll, almost a quarter of the likely Ohio electorate has already voted, and among these early voters, Obama is beating Mitt Romney 60 percent to 34 percent—or a 26-point spread. 

But Republicans are more likely to vote on Election Day—in part reflecting their age and commitment to tradition. So Democrats need to build up a steady lead in early voting, and that’s why the Obama Campaign has set up more than 100 local headquarters across the 88 counties of Ohio—more than twice the Romney campaign.

Democrats do best in cities such as Cleveland and Columbus. Republicans do best in more rural counties. And that means the swing districts—like Stark County—are where this presidential election will be won or lost.

The ad is called “Bringing America Together”–perhaps unintentionally echoing a Nixon campaign theme from 1968–and it is the core of Team Romney’s closing argument.

This is soothing and smart politics aimed squarely at swing voters. But it isn’t even skin-deep. Other than the ads, there is little reason to think that Moderate Mitt is anything but the latest political ploy from a chameleon with no consistent core beyond his own ambition.

Mitt Romney is a highly moral man who happens to be amoral when it comes to politics— a salesman willing to make whatever pitch will sell at that moment. And in these closing days he is trying to be steady and centrist. So he spent the third debate suddenly embracing Obama foreign polices he had been relentlessly attacking on the campaign trail for 18 months.

Now, he is running as the candidate of change, a leader who can usher in a new era of bipartisanship.

Fischer has been endorsed by Sarah Palin and received big dollar donations from the Koch brothers and Joe Rickets.

Kerrey has been endorsed by Warren Buffett, Joe Lieberman, and Steve Martin (in what even The Daily Caller called “possibly the greatest ad of the election cycle.”

Kerrey’s campaign challenge—polls showed him down by double-digits for much of the race—stems from the fact that he led the liberal New School in New York City for the past decade—and was effective enough that some Democrats urged him to run for mayor against Mike Bloomberg, but Kerrey declined and instead chose to answer calls to return to his home state for public service.  The carpet-bagger claim has been hurled against him, but even Republican Chuck Hagel, Kerrey’s one-time colleague in the Senate, dismissed that, saying: “It’s a joke to say he’s not a real Nebraskan and he’s a carpetbagger. Come on. This is a guy who is Nebraska through and through.”

Kerrey’s campaign has been aimed at strengthening the center in American politics. His campaign stump speech addresses the subject directly. “Somebody has to go back there and change Congress. Somebody has to stand the middle ground,” Kerrey says. “We’re going to have to change. And I want to be the person that makes that change happen.”

That’s why, when the moderate-minded businessmen took a look at the two tickets, hopes for a united solution to the debt lie with the Democrats:

“It may sound counterintuitive, but according to the outlines established by the CEOs, Obama’s reelection would actually be better for achieving long-term deficit reduction – because he is the only candidate who has put forward a balanced bipartisan plan.”

Read my full column at CNN.