Why Do So Many Syrians Defend Assad?
Harold Rhodes explains why the Alawites, a long persecuted Syrian minority group, have good reason to fear a Syria without the protective power of the Assad regime.
Syria's non-Sunnis have historically lived in apprehension of what the Sunnis might do to them. Although Arab Sunnis are the largest religio-ethnic group in Syria, non-Sunni Arabs make up upwards of 40% of the population. Historically, until the end of Ottoman rule after World War I, the Sunnis assumed they were the region's natural rulers, and by and large controlled the destinies of the large numbers of non-Sunnis who lived among them. The non-Sunnis seem to have "known their place" in Syrian society – second class citizens. The Sunnis determined the rules.
Rhodes believes the prospects are minimal that Syria can emerge from this civil war with a strong, unified central state to protect minority groups like the Alawites.
[I]f there is ever to be some sort of peace-like arrangement – albeit temporary – in what is Syria today, there is no way that Syria can remain a centralized state, with new rulers, whoever they might be, who would continue to oppress other Syrians . Of all the ethnic and religious groups in Syria, the Alawites have the most to lose, which they undoubtedly know and which is why they must have control over their own destiny. They would have no alternative other than to remain well-armed; if not, the Sunnis would again take them over and subject them to the slave-like status they had in the past.