Demography is Destiny
Measuring the Hispanic Vote—David Frum
The most fascinating device on the Resurgent Republic infographic is the election modeler.
The device allows you to predict election outcomes under a variety of Hispanic vote scenarios.
The device carries two messages:
Under today's conditions, Hispanic votes are not that necessary to the GOP.
Hispanics account for about 8% of the national presidential electorate. If only 33% of that 8% vote Republican, a dismal showing, then Republicans can still win a national election with 52% of the non-Hispanic vote.
It's the future conditions that become more ominous.
If we increase the Hispanic share of the electorate to 13%, their share of the total population, and if we assume a continued 33% Republican vote share, then 52% of the non-Hispanic vote translates into a Republican defeat.
If we raise the Hispanic share of the electorate to 16%, and assume a continued 33% Republican share, then Republicans must win 54% of the non-Hispanic vote to prevail.
If the Republican share of the Hispanic vote drops below 33% the job gets harder still.
Move the toggles and see for yourself.
—MORE TO COME—