David Frum

04.19.12

Measuring the Hispanic Vote

The most fascinating device on the Resurgent Republic infographic is the election modeler.

The device allows you to predict election outcomes under a variety of Hispanic vote scenarios.

The device carries two messages:

Under today's conditions, Hispanic votes are not that necessary to the GOP.

Hispanics account for about 8% of the national presidential electorate. If only 33% of that 8% vote Republican, a dismal showing, then Republicans can still win a national election with 52% of the non-Hispanic vote.

It's the future conditions that become more ominous.

If we increase the Hispanic share of the electorate to 13%, their share of the total population, and if we assume a continued 33% Republican vote share, then 52% of the non-Hispanic vote translates into a Republican defeat.

If we raise the Hispanic share of the electorate to 16%, and assume a continued 33% Republican share, then Republicans must win 54% of the non-Hispanic vote to prevail.

If the Republican share of the Hispanic vote drops below 33% the job gets harder still.

Move the toggles and see for yourself.

—MORE TO COME—