Politics

09.11.12

Reality Has Too Many Democrats!

It's fun to watch conservatives try to debunk these new polls by arguing that Democrats are oversampled. They may have a point in any individual case, but it's a comical effort overall, and not something I usually bother doing when the situation is reversed, it feels too grasping-at-straws-ey for me, although there is the occasional screamer that must be addressed.

The new Gallup tracking number just came out at 1 pm, and Obama picked up a point, and leads Romney 50 to 44. That's the first time Obama has hit 50 in a Gallup head-to-head since April.

The WaPo poll topline is better for Romney--Obama leads by just one point. But Greg Sargent has a terrific rundown of the second-line numbers, especially with respect to undecided voters. You should have a look at those. Basically, Obama has erased Romney's lead on handling the economy in this poll. Among undecideds, the picture seems to be that they don't like Obama's economic policies much, but they don't like Romney's either, and don't think things would be any better today if he'd been president.

Nate Silver thinks Obama's bounce might prove to be ephemeral, but he still believes Romney has problems and much work to be done.

What does it all mean? We all know what it means. Obama is likely to win. Things could change but he is likely to win. I'd like to see the conservatives who comment here produce (I know this is asking a lot) some sober analysis instead of the constant bile and nitpicking. What do you think is wrong with Romney-Ryan right now? And "the left-wing media" doesn't count as an answer. Or maybe you think nothing is wrong and he's going to win, which is fine, but explain why. We'd all like to hear what you have to say as long as you can say it with minimal toxicity.

And listen, President Dinkins: NO NAME CALLING. You can call me all the names you want--I'm a public person, I guess, and I'm fair game. But do NOT call other commenters here names. And in fact we'd all like to see you apologize to lefthalfback, who's been a stalwart around these parts for a few years now.