David Frum

09.19.12

It's All About the Senate

Depressing news (depending on your partisanship, of course) for Republicans. The Financial Times is reporting on the increasing likelihood Democrats will retain control of the Senate.

The party has to defend 23 of the 33 seats that are in play this election, making it hard for analysts to see how Democrats could possibly stop their rivals from gaining the net four seats they need to wrest control of the upper chamber from the president’s party.

Not any more. “This started off as an exposure election for Democrats but because of a number of unrelated events that have hurt Republicans, they are now in a much better shape to keep the Senate,” says Jennifer Duffy, a Senate analyst at the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

It is certainly not a sure thing. Ms Duffy puts the chances for Democrats keeping the Senate at 55-45. But the momentum has been shifting in the incumbent majority’s favour in recent weeks.