The "Narrative" Narrative

10.24.12

Day Two of Romney "Momentum" Watch

I see that Romney did yesterday exactly what I (and Jon Chait and Alec MacGillis) said he was doing--used language trying to persuade people, and mainly political journalists really, he's full steam ahead and nearly has this in the bag. In fact, he said that Obama's campaign "is taking on water, and our campaign is full steam ahead!"

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David Frum and Michael Tomasky break down the final presidential debate and the resulting polls.

Well, it's always nice to be right, but the question continues to be whether the media is going to keep buying this. Mike Allen had been (to my reading) pushing this narrative, but today...well, dare I say it, but it sounds as if he may have done some worthwhile reading yesterday!:

As an antidote to the (perhaps) irrational Republican exuberance that seems to have seized D.C., we pause for the following public-service announcement. To be President, you have to win states, not debates. And Mitt Romney has a problem. Despite a great debate and what The Wall Street Journal’s Neil King Jr. on Sunday called a polling “surge,” Romney has not put away a single one of the must-have states. President Obama remains the favorite because he only needs to win a couple of the toss-ups. Mitt needs to win most of them. A cold shower for the GOP: Most polling shows Romney trailing in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa – by MORE than Obama trails in North Carolina. Glenn Thrush and Jonathan Martin reminded of us of the 2008 primary analogy: Whatever else Hillary Clinton had, Barack Obama had the math. And math, not momentum, gets you the big house, the bulletproof car, the cool plane.

He is correct. Indeed, as someone noted on Twitter this morning, Obama leads Ohio by more on average than he is trailiing in Virginia (where by some measures he isn't even trailing at all--the polls are about evenly split), and yet somehow the political press seems to think Virginia is finished.

Obviously, Romney could win. But in electoral college terms, he is behind. Go to 270towin.com and show me Romney's alleged 305 electoral votes, which an aide put out there and which some folks reported credulously. It ain't there, babe.