Turnout Turnout Turnout
Republicans who believe Romney is going to win are mostly going on--well, they're mostly going on their emotional refusal to believe the country would reelect Obama. But those who are going on anything tangible and real are going the question party turnout.
It was D+7 in 2008, as I've told you many times. Will it be D+7 this time? Highly unlikely. But is a big GOP advantage likely? Apparently some think so. John Podhoretz of Commentary just tweeted:
Um...Rasmussen's party affiliation number for electorate in October is...39.1R-33.3D. In '08 had it +7D, which is how it turned out.
So in other words, turnout tomorrow is going to be R+6, eh? Obviously, if it is, all these polls are wrong, and Romney will win. However...
Bear in mind what Ron Brownstein noted on This Week yesterday. There's been just one presidential election in the history of modern polling--since 1952--in which Republican turnout matched Democratic turnout. That was 2004, when exit pols had both at 37 percent.
So Republicans matched the Democratic vote once in 15 elections, and now they're going to be an unprecedented 6 percent higher? If that turns out to be true, I'll be the first to say so. History would not suggest that it's all that likely. The 2004 race represented the the biggest ground game the GOP has ever assembled, and it went to work against a Democratic one that at least on paper doesn't come close to matching the Obama operations.