Golden Globes Forecast: Why Amy Schumer Should Beat Out BFF Jennifer Lawrence, and More

Yes, the 73rd Golden Globes will air Sunday night. But amid all the tipsy barbs from host Ricky Gervais, who should win? Our Marlow Stern and Kevin Fallon break it down for you.

01.09.16 5:08 AM ET

MARLOW: The Golden Globes is Sunday, and yes, they’re now, thanks to years of great hosting, regarded as more than the Oscars’ drunk, corrupt cousin. While there are still no black voters actually voting on the awards—which, don’t get me wrong, is a major problem that needs to be addressed—the days of movies like the silly Burlesque being awarded multiple noms following a flashy Vegas trip (replete with Cher concert) for Hollywood Foreign Press voters, or The Tourist to get Johnny and Angelina to attend the soiree, seem like a distant memory.

KEVIN: Distant memory? #NeverForget Burlesque.

MARLOW: R.I.P. Christina Aguilera’s movie career. OK, so let’s start with the movies. For Best Motion Picture – Drama, my choice has to be Mad Max: Fury Road, which was unfairly shunned by the BAFTAs. It was, in my humble opinion, the most thrilling, childlike wonderment-inducing movie of the year. Carol was absolutely lovely, immaculately staged, and had arguably the best final scene (along with Phoenix) of 2015, but I gotta give it to my girl Furiosa, the most badass cinema heroine since Ellen Ripley.

That being said, Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama should go to the inimitable Cate Blanchett for her outré turn as a closeted 1950s housewife in Todd Haynes’s Carol. Blanchett remains one of the few actresses in Hollywood, along with Marion Cotillard, Naomi Watts, Jessica Chastain, and the newly-minted Rebecca Ferguson, who exudes classic movie star glamour, and here she is an absolute dynamo, conveying Carol’s inner anguish and torment at the hands of an iniquitous society. Since my two favorite lead actress performances of the year were snubbed (Charlize in Mad Max and Nina Hoss in Phoenix), Cate gets the gold.

KEVIN: I LOVE THE GOLDEN GLOBES. I think it’s hilarious when they do things like nominate Burlesque for Best Picture and I think it’s an essential corrective to the Oscars distaste for genre fare when comedies like Bridesmaids, Ghostbusters, Home Alone, and the best movie of all-time Sister Act can be considered Best Picture nominees, as well as more action-heavy movies like my pick for Best Drama this year Mad Max: Fury Road.

MARLOW: I enjoy the batshit aspect of it, too—along with the 7,500 bottles of champagne the stars are getting sloshed on, which makes it sort of like The Bachelor/Bachelorette meets a black tie ceremony. And don’t forget Sister Act II for the Lauryn Hill factor! But yes, the Oscars’ distaste for all things comedy continues to be an embarrassment, agreed. Anyways…

Cate Blanchett, ‘Carol’

Wilson Webb

Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara in 'Carol.'

KEVIN: Sadly, I think for the most badass feminist dystopian car chase conservation flick of all time, it’s truly just an honor to be nominated. I predict that Carol will win Best Drama even though, for all its pretty costumes and aching romance, it’s far too still for my taste and never really convinces me that there’s a good reason for Rooney Mara’s Therese so be so obsessed with this titular basket case...let alone why me as a viewer should care about her. Solid reviews for the film and for Blanchett, who I think is out-acted by Mara, will carry both to a win. Which is a major bummer because Brie Larson is so much more deserving for her startling star-is-born turn in Room

Is there even a point talking about Best Actor in a Drama? Leo gets raped by a bear, wins award...right? 

MARLOW: Brie is excellent in Room, though I thought she turned in a superior (and criminally overlooked) performance in Short Term 12. As for the bear rape that wasn’t, yes, the HFPA loves Leo. Even though he’s gotten shut out at the Oscars, he’s taken home well-deserved Globes for The Wolf of Wall Street (which has aged very well) and The Aviator (ditto), and will win his third this year. Plus, this category is insane. Will Smith for Concussion? Methinks the HFPA got a bit starstruck here instead of voting for more deserving candidates, though this is also the result of films like The Big Short, perhaps the most rage-inducing thing this side of Making a Murderer, and The Martian being in the Comedy category, which is even crazier.

KEVIN: Yeah, the category placement is always majorly ridiculous here. The Big Short was less ha-ha funny than it was weep-silent-tears-for-humanity funny, though I kind of buy The Martian in this category. (The “Matt Damon on Mars!” one-man show had some good nyuks!) It’s why The Martian will likely take home the Best Comedy prize instead of the buzzier Trainwreck or Melissa McCarthy's gut-busting action spoof Spy, which was for my money the most entertaining—and shouldn't that make it the best?—movie of the year. My religion is Rose Byrne’s performance in that film.

MARLOW: Rose Byrne is SO deliciously good in that. She made our Best Performances of the Year list, too!

KEVIN: The more interesting race, though, is Best Actress in a Comedy, which pits BFFs and renowned Cool Kids Amy Schumer and Jennifer Lawrence, who is nominated for Joy, against each other. Whoo-ee was Joy a stinker of a movie! But Lawrence commanded the screen and was feisty and did her Lawrence thang, which is why I think she stands a pretty good shot of taking the trophy from the far more deserving Schumer and the supes adorbz Lily Tomlin, who is so, so good in Grandma

Amy Schumer, ‘Trainwreck’

Amy Schumer and Bill Hader in 'Trainwreck.'

My sneaking suspicion, though, is that the HFPA won't be able to resist the fawning headlines that would accompany what would surely be a sensational speech should Schumer win. Buckle down for some unbridled K-Fal enthusiasm if she does!

MARLOW: Joy was prettyyyy prettyyyy bad, and I’m a big David O. Russell fan—even enjoyed the batshit I Heart Huckabees, albeit mostly for Naomi Watts and Marky Mark’s gung-ho turns. Out of all the nominees here I think Schumer is the most deserving for Trainwreck, and I’m hoping she’ll eke out a surprise win. She managed the dramatic moments just as well as the comedic ones, and that eulogy sequence alone is a more impressive acting feat than anything I saw in Joy despite, like you said, the magnetism of J.Law. Either way, I’m sure there’ll be some great GIFable moments of the two posing with the Globe and In-N-Out burgers, although maybe that’s just me projecting.

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KEVIN: If NBC doesn’t have camera operators entirely dedicated to documenting J.Law and Amy then I don’t know what’s real anymore.

MARLOW: For the Best Motion Picture – Comedy and Best Actor Comedy, I think we’ve got a Martian twofer, for film and Matt Damon. Despite his unfortunate white privilege moment on HBO’s Project Greenlight, Damon’s been one of the most consistently good actors (and dudes) in Hollywood over the past two decades, and his performances age surprisingly well—especially his demented one in The Talented Mr. Ripley, which deserved ALL the awards. So, to quote Team America: World Police, I think Matt Daaaaaaayyymin will have a very big night.

KEVIN: That is a very apt Team America quote. And here is a very apt Kevin Fallon quote: “If Sylvester Stallone doesn't win a Golden Globe for Creed I’m sending flaming bags of dog poo to every member of the Hollywood Foreign Press.” And for Best Supporting Actress, I’d say Alicia Vikander takes it for Ex Machina. My heart is with Kate Winslet and Jennifer Jason Leigh. My soul is with the year’s biggest breakout star, the Swede who was in every goddamn movie, the spritely ingénue who nearly made The Danish Girl watchable. This is her reward.

MARLOW: Kristen Stewart deserves the Best Supporting Actress Globe for her emotionally raw and nervy performance in Clouds of Sils Maria, but alas, she was looked over by the HFPA—this, despite becoming the first American since Adrien Brody (for The Pianist) to win a César, France's equivalent of an Oscar.

Christian Slater as Mr. Robot, Rami Malek as Elliot Alderson.

David Giesbrecht/USA N

Christian Slater and Rami Malek in 'Mr. Robot.'

But yes, Vikander would be my second choice, and definitely deserves it (even though the best performance in the film belongs to Oscar Isaac, who makes an excellent Silicon Valley egomaniac, killer dance moves and all). Sly is fine, and I still think the story about how he got Richard Gere fired off of Lords of Flatbush is one of the funniest things I’ve ever heard (it involves a messy sandwich, you must read it here), but my choice for Best Supporting Actor goes to Paul Dano for his tremendous turn as the Beach Boys’ Brian Wilson in Love & Mercy. He pulled off a tremendous feat, bringing the creative process to mad, thrilling life.

KEVIN: But also, let’s talk about TV! I love TV. I love the Golden Globes’ batshit taste in TV. Are this year’s nominees the best television series and actors from this past year? Oh good lord, not at all. But they are fun, and buzzy, and driving conversation, and interesting, and adventurous. The Globes like to reward the TV shows that everyone is talking about. And this year everyone is talking about that fella Mr. Robot. I expect a sweep: Best Drama, Best Supporting Actor for Christian Slater, and Best Actor for Rami Malek. Sorry Jon Hamm!

MARLOW: All I can really process right now is Making a Murderer, but I’ll do my best here to free up some brain space. As much as I love the idea of a Mr. Robot clean sweep, I think Hamm will take the Globe here as a well-deserved statue for his entire run on Mad Men—though my personal choice would be Malek, for sure. And a Best Supporting trophy for Slater will make up for the fact that he should have been nominated as Best Supporting Actor for Heathers (I stand by this). As for Actress in a Drama, it’s going to Viola Davis. She’s got the awards show trifecta of powerhouse actress, great speech-giver, and can seriously rock a dress (those arms… best in the biz). Though my choice would actually be Taraji P. Henson for Empire who absolutely slays as Cookie, one of the most fun characters on TV.

KEVIN: In my dream, Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson tie and weep into each other’s arms as I sob into my white wine at the beauty of it all. (But I also think Davis will win. Sorry, Taraji!) As for the comedy races? Who the hell freaking knows. Have you seen that list? Casual, Mozart in the Jungle, Orange Is the New Black, Transparent, Veep, and Silicon Valley. Transparent, which won last year, is deserving of a repeat for its soulful and rich second season. But don't be surprised if these clowns do something really weird like name Mozart in the Jungle its winner. 

MARLOW: I didn’t even know what Mozart in the Jungle was about until a few months ago, to be honest. It sounds like a series about ayahuasca ceremonies or something.

KEVIN: Honestly, I'd rather watch a show about that. Anyway, the comedy acting races are always tough to predict. Last year Gina Rodriguez stole my heart with her Jane the Virgin speech, and could feasibly repeat this year, though I think The CW’s new It Girl Rachel Bloom could steal it for Crazy Ex-Girlfriend. Similarly, I’d be gassed for Jeffrey Tambor to take it again, but I can’t imagine the Globes resisting the urge to give Aziz Ansari the chance to deliver a quirky-charming-awkward-cool speech for the quirky-charming-awkward-cool Master of None.

MARLOW: Aziz! Would love that. Deep down, I’m hoping that Empire wins for Best Drama and then Sean Penn pulls a Kanye and stage-crashes Lee Daniels’ acceptance speech—only to have Taraji come in with the left-field haymaker, knocking him out cold. A boy can dream.