MIDTERM MADNESS

Bettors Make Bold Prediction Ahead of Election Day

Bettors are wagering millions on the midterms, including some unexpected bets.

Bettors have millions of dollars riding on next week’s midterm elections—and most are feeling bullish about a Democratic sweep.

Bettors on Kalshi are giving Democrats a 68 percent chance of sweeping both chambers on Election Day, up sharply from just 30 percent at the start of the year. Bettors have poured a staggering $73.3 million into Kalshi’s market on which party will hold the congressional reins.

Polymarket traders are even more bullish, putting the odds of a Democratic sweep at 70 percent. The House, meanwhile, appears all but settled in bettors’ eyes, with Democrats given a 94 percent chance of reclaiming it on Polymarket.

Just 6 percent of Kalshi bettors expect Republicans to maintain control of both chambers, while 27 percent are betting the party will hold the Senate but surrender the House.

Democratic fortunes on prediction markets have climbed sharply since early September, when President Donald Trump kicked off his midterm panic tour with rallies across the country and polls began showing Democrats pulling ahead in key Senate races.

While Democrats’ leads in those races have largely remained in the single digits—and within the margin of error in many polls—bettors are showing considerable confidence in a series of victories, including in red states.

Polymarket bettors give Democratic candidate James Talarico a 70 percent chance of defeating Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, even though no Democrat has won a statewide election there since 1994.

In Kansas, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race since 1932, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton has surged past Sen. Roger Marshall on Kalshi this week, with bettors now giving him a 53 percent chance of victory to Marshall’s 49 percent. CNN released a poll Thursday showing Hamilton up four points among voters.

Still, bettors aren’t going all-in on Democrats.

In Iowa’s Senate race, where polls have pointed to a possible Democratic upset, Kalshi bettors still favor GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson over Democratic candidate Josh Turek.

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In South Carolina, GOP Sen. Darline Graham remains heavily favored, with bettors giving her a 78 percent chance of defeating Democratic candidate Annie Andrews.

To regain control of the Senate, Democrats must pick up four seats. Kalshi bettors are currently giving them the edge in six races that could deliver those gains: North Carolina, Ohio, Maine and Alaska, as well as Texas and Kansas.

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Erkki ForsterNight News Reporter

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