CNN data guru Harry Enten has made a stunning prediction involving President Donald Trump’s Democratic nemesis.
James Talarico, 37, is now leading Republican Attorney General—and Trump ally—Ken Paxton, 63, in Texas’ fierce Senate battle. According to a New York Times/Siena University poll released on Saturday, Talarico is polling at 51 percent, ahead of Paxton at 45 percent.
Alarmingly for Trump, 80, his disapproval rating in Texas is sitting at 57 percent, as his dire personal popularity continues to drag down his party’s electoral chances.
On Sunday, Enten ran the numbers on Talarico and a potential Democratic Senate win in Texas. The state has long been considered a GOP stronghold, and a shock victory would go a long way toward Democrats seizing control of the upper chamber in the Nov. 3 elections.
Based on his aggregated data, Enten said if Talarico beats Paxton, it gives Democrats a 78 percent chance of winning the Senate.
“Basically, they would be very, very close to doing so,” Enten said, pointing out that Democrats need to flip four seats to determine control of the Senate, and Texas is the fourth most likely to flip.
Enten’s aggregated polling figures put Talarico at a 70 percent chance of victory, compared to Paxton at just 30 percent.
“And I will note as Talarico’s chances have been going up, and they have been going up, Democrats’ chances of winning control of the Senate have also been going up—going up like a rocket.”
Using CNN analysis, Enten calculated that the Republicans’ key advantage is outside spending on their campaign, with an immense $167 million in Texas compared to just $6.8 million for Democrats.
However, on actual advertising spending, Talarico is “absolutely crushing” with $31 million compared to just $352,000 for Paxton.
“James Talarico has a $31 million advantage,” Enten pointed out.
Talarico’s rising odds, and the troubling New York Times polling, follow Paxton being secretly recorded slamming President Trump and his failed midterm election convention in Dallas.
“Do you feel like he’s a little bit of a drag?” a person could be heard asking Paxton about Trump in audio obtained by The New York Times.
“So to be honest with you, the numbers—when we did that convention—it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped,” Paxton replied. “Right now, yeah, not good.”
Paxton’s soon-to-be ex-wife Angela Paxton, a Texas state senator herself, released an ad on Saturday, calling for voters to support Republicans.
“Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: In a general election, it’s not as much about the individual players on the team. It’s about getting the whole team across the finish line,” she said, avoiding mentioning her estranged husband by name.
“Either we hold every Republican seat or we hand the future of Texas to the other team,” she said.
The ad was paid for by Texas PAC, “a political action committee affiliated with the main super PAC for Senate Republican leaders,” the Times reported.
Angela Paxton filed for divorce from her husband of nearly 40 years “on biblical grounds” in July 2025. They share four children and seven grandchildren.
Paxton was filmed sightseeing in London in July this year while on a romantic getaway with his alleged mistress, Christian influencer Tracy Duhon, 58.
