CNN Data Guru: Why Fewer People Might Bother to Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election
It’s possible that voter turnout could be lower this time around than four years ago.
CNN
CNN’s Harry Enten on Monday sketched out why turnout in the 2024 presidential election could end up being lower than in the 2020 election.
Even though more than 40 million people have already voted with eight days still to go until Election Day, the final turnout may prove to be lower than that of the presidential race four years ago—which reached record highs. Enten, CNN’s senior political data reporter, pointed to polling on registered voters’ feelings toward voting to make the case.
“Back in 2020 at this point, 88 percent of registered voters said they were certain to vote,” Enten said. “Where are we today? It’s just 81 percent.”
He also pointed to a fall in registered voters saying they are “extremely motivated” to vote, with 73 percent putting themselves in that category four years ago compared with 65 percent saying the same today.
Enten further highlighted the drop in the midterm turnout between 2018 and 2022—from 48.1 percent of the estimated voting-eligible population to 45.1 percent, according to the Pew Research Center—and the decline in turnout in Washington’s primary in August. There, turnout fell to 40.91 percent from 54.44 percent four years ago. Several factors about the state’s top-two primary system make it a closely watched event as a predictor of what may happen in general elections.
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As to why turnout could fall in the imminent presidential election, Enten highlighted New York Times/Siena College polling showing that while 74 percent of registered voters considered the 2020 election the most important election of their lives at the time, just 65 percent say the same now of the 2024 election.
“That’s still a pretty impressive number, but it’s a drop of nearly 10 points of Americans or registered voters saying it’s the most important election of their lifetime,” Enten said. “Despite the fact we have all these politicians out there saying it, voters are actually slightly less likely to agree with them.”
Answering “the million dollar question,” whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris would benefit more from a drop in turnout, Enten claimed it may not actually benefit either candidate.
“If you look at the broad universe of registered voters, you see Harris up by a point—well within the margin of error nationally,” he said. “If you look at likely voters, it’s still Harris [up] by a point.”
Despite current polling showing no clear benefit to either ticket from a lower turnout, Enten summarized such a scenario in a post on X with: “Makes each vote count more!”
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