BLUE MOVES

Democrat Hopes for Massive Blue Wave Surge in Final Stretch

Democats’ totals could surpass those of 2006 and 2018.

Democrats are on track to retake the House majority next week, according to multiple analyses, but the big question is: by how much?

Some Democrats are hyping the prospects of a massive blue wave while others are expressing cautious optimism, noting they only need to flip three seats to take back control.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Friday shifted 12 more seats in Democrats’ favor with just four days to go before Election Day. It is the latest in an ongoing series of rating changes that have all been welcome news for Democrats.

The new breakdown brings the total seats Democrats are likely to pick up to between 12 and 25, which would give them as many as 240 seats in Congress, a nice cushion after years of razor-thin majorities.

It goes well beyond the magic number to clinch the majority, which is 218.

Should Democrats prevail, their majorities could surpass the majority totals set when Democrats crushed Republicans in the 2006 midterms as well as the 2018 midterms during President Donald Trump’s first term.

Back in 2006, Democrats picked up 233 seats in the midterms as President George W. Bush became increasingly unpopular amid the War in Iraq and looming economic concerns.

OAFS OF ALLEGIANCE

MAGA Hatches Sinister Plot to Block Election Winners

Sarah Ewall-Wice

While Tuesday’s election is not expected to flip as many seats as in 2018, it could still surpass that majority. Democrats picked up a net gain of 41 seats six years ago, giving them a 235-seat majority as Trump backlash fueled Democratic turnout.

To clinch a total of 240 seats, Democrats would need to secure all 222 blue-leaning seats as rated by the Cook Political Report, as well as all 18 seats considered “Toss-Ups.”

Among the races shifted toward Democrats on Friday were three seats that went from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up.” Pennsylvania’s 1st congressional district and Colorado’s 5th congressional district were also moved to “Toss-Ups.”

That also includes a shift for South Carolina’s 1st congressional district seat currently held by outgoing GOP Rep. Nancy Mace to “Toss Up.” But the Palmetto State is looking increasingly rough for Republicans who are now additionally scrambling to hold the Senate seat there. The House rating shift happened just one day after Trump rallied in another part of the state for GOP Senator Darline Graham. The No Going Back PAC also reallocated money from the first congressional district race to help hold the Senate seat.

At the same time, the Ohio 9th congressional seat held by Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, and the Pennsylvania 8th congressional district seat held by GOP Rep. Rob Bresnahan both shifted from “Toss-Ups” to “Lean Democrat.”

Another three seats moved from “Likely Republican” to just ”Lean Republican" and four seats moved from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican” as Republican support even softens in redder parts of North Carolina and Washington.

One head-turning shift was in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district, where NRCC Chairman Richard Hudson is currently serving. While the seat is now “Likely Republican,” suggesting it will stay in GOP hands, the NRCC has actually been spending on ads there to help save the Republican campaign arm boss’s seat.

Play Video

See more of our coverage in your search results.

ADD THE DAILY BEAST ON GOOGLE

Sarah Ewall-WicePolitical Reporter

Got a tip? Send it to The Daily Beast here.